Important: This is general market commentary and research, not personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Relative strength is a descriptive, backward-looking signal, not a forecast. Markets carry risk and you can lose money; do your own research and consider your own circumstances. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned.
How we pick leaders — in 30 seconds
We rank market themes by relative strength, find the strongest names inside the leading themes, and verify every quote and return against live market data at publish time. Each name gets one call: Near pivot (price in its pivot zone) · Basing (watch for a breakout) · Wait (strong, no setup yet) · Extended (overbought, await a pullback) · Too early (unconfirmed bounce) · Avoid (downtrend). Relative strength is a descriptive, backward-looking signal — not a forecast.
6
Leading themes
8
Setup-ready leaders
FTNT · VVX · DCO · CAT · AXGN · CNC · PSMT · MRK
7
Fading / avoid
Industrials
Strongest theme
Market regime
It was a crowded-momentum unwind driven by rates, sitting on top of a cyclical-value regime that has been in place all year. The trigger was two things at once.
Broadcom guided AI chips up +200% YoY to $16B but failed to clear the ~$17.2B blowout bar the market had priced. And a hot May payrolls print (172k vs ~80k consensus) pushed year-end Fed-hike odds to ~70% and shoved the 10Y past 4.5%.
The index numbers hid a violent internal rotation. SPY fell -2.58%, QQQ -4.80%, and the SOX -10.3% (its worst day since March 2020), while defensives went green: staples (XLP +1.7%), healthcare (XLV +0.6%), utilities (XLU +0.9%).
The single cleanest tell that this was rates and not a growth scare: gold sold off WITH stocks (GLD -3.65%), and leveraged bear ETFs dominated the entire gainers board (SOXS +31.5%, GDXD +27%). That is a leveraged-long flush, not fundamental repricing.
By measured relative strength the durable leaders are Industrials (smallest drawdown from highs) and Energy (the YTD leader, now cooling). Semis still own the strongest medium-term trend (SMH +44.7% above its 200d), so one bad day is a sharp pullback inside an intact uptrend, not a top.
The honest unresolved question is flush-and-resume vs leadership-loss in AI-semis, and one session cannot answer it. Two narrative corrections matter.
Financials are NOT emerging leadership (XLF is -4.5% YTD and below its 200d; the green day was safe-harbor flow). And AI-power/uranium screens as new leadership but the price data says it is extended AI-momentum correcting, with uranium equities now below their 200d.
The genuinely broken complex is the speculative AI fringe: quantum, uranium/nuclear equities, crypto, and gold miners. Data as of 2026-06-05/06.
Semis still own the strongest medium-term trend (SMH +44.7% above its 200d), so one bad day is a sharp pullback inside an intact uptrend, not a top.
Theme strength & rotation
Each theme’s leadership strength (0–100, from its leaders’ proximity to 52-wk highs, relative strength vs the proxy, and momentum), tracked across issues. ▲ strengthening · ▼ rolling over · ● holding · ✦ new. The number is the change vs the last issue this theme appeared. A theme that is rising but not yet at the top is where leadership may be emerging.
81●-1 ▇▇Healthcare / pharma laggard-to-leader turn
78●-4██▇▇▇▇AI Semiconductors / Compute
78▼-7 ▇▇Small-cap / equal-weight broadening
73▼-18 ▇███▆AI memory / HBM super-cycle
72✦new ▆Industrials / AI-infrastructure capexemerging
70▼-12 ▇▇█▇▆Data-center physical buildout — cooling & electricals
68▲+28 ▄▆Financials / banksemerging
68▼-8███▆▇▆Cybersecurity
64▼-12 ▆▆▇▇▆Neocloud / AI Datacenter Buildout (GPU-rental + servers)
63▲+9 ▄▅▆Selective medtech / device breakoutsemerging
63●+0▆ ▆▆▅▆GLP-1 / obesity & large-cap pharma
62▲+6▅▆ ▆▅▅Energy / oil & gasemerging
61▲+20 ▄▅Defense / aerospace & dronesemerging
56▼-22▅ ▆▆▇▅Copper — AI/electrification structural leader
54✦new ▅Consumer Staples / defensive rotationemerging
51▲+4 ▄▄▅Biotech laggard-to-leader (small/mid-cap)emerging
46▼-4▄ ▄▄▅▄Gold & precious metals
46●+1 ▄▄▄▄▄Quantum Computing
40▼-18 ▄▄▅▄AI power generation / IPPs / uranium & nuclear
Group breadth & rotation
Participation of each theme’s whole peer group (its industry basket, 20–180 names) — not just the few named leaders above. Scored against an elevated, quality-screened universe (~72% of these names are already above their 50-day, ~98% above their 200-day), so every figure is a ratio to that pool: a group at 60% above its 200-day is weak here, not healthy, and a breadth score of 50 means “typical for this pool” — not mediocre. ▲ RS broadening · ▼ narrowing · ● stable. Breadth that is firming while the leaders only hold is where rotation is arriving early. Group breadth measured on the panel snapshot refreshed 2026-06-06 (prices through the 2026-06-05 close).
68leading●+087% >50-DMA · 1.2× poolAI Semiconductors / Computeformal · 83
56mixed●+195% >50-DMA · 1.3× poolFinancials / banksformal · 22
50emerging▲+1468% >50-DMA · 0.9× poolDefense / aerospace & dronesformal · 34⟳ rotating in
49mixed●+572% >50-DMA · 1.0× poolIndustrials / AI-infrastructure capexformal · 36
48leading●-492% >50-DMA · 1.3× poolCybersecurityformal · 37
45mixed●+178% >50-DMA · 1.1× poolSelective medtech / device breakoutsformal · 27
21broken▲+1223% >50-DMA · 0.3× poolEnergy / oil & gasformal · 44
Too thin to score — tracked, counts only:
bespoke 7AI memory — 7/7 above 50-DMA · med RS 95bespoke 3Neocloud — 3/3 above 50-DMA · med RS 96small 10Healthcare — 10/10 above 50-DMA · med RS 83small 18Data-center physical b — 14/18 above 50-DMA · med RS 92small 18Quantum Computing — 18/18 above 50-DMA · med RS 87small 6Copper — 3/6 above 50-DMA · med RS 82small 9Consumer Staples — 5/9 above 50-DMA · med RS 64small 16GLP-1 — 9/16 above 50-DMA · med RS 66curated-override 16Gold & precious metals — 2/16 above 50-DMA · med RS 78category-of-one 1Biotech laggard-to-lea — single leader — no peer basket yetcurated-override 5AI power generation — 0/5 above 50-DMA · med RS 68index-proxy Small-cap — index proxy — no constituent basket
bespoke 7AI memory — 7/7 above 50-DMA · med RS 95bespoke 3Neocloud — 3/3 above 50-DMA · med RS 96small 10Healthcare — 10/10 above 50-DMA · med RS 83small 18Data-center physical b — 14/18 above 50-DMA · med RS 92small 18Quantum Computing — 18/18 above 50-DMA · med RS 87small 6Copper — 3/6 above 50-DMA · med RS 82small 9Consumer Staples — 5/9 above 50-DMA · med RS 64small 16GLP-1 — 9/16 above 50-DMA · med RS 66curated-override 16Gold & precious metals — 2/16 above 50-DMA · med RS 78category-of-one 1Biotech laggard-to-lea — single leader — no peer basket yetcurated-override 5AI power generation — 0/5 above 50-DMA · med RS 68index-proxy Small-cap — index proxy — no constituent basket
◎ Emerging theme forming? Behind the lone leader in “Biotech laggard-to-leader (small/mid-cap)”, 99 Biotechnology names are already at RS ≥ 80 — broad group strength that may deserve its own theme. e.g. AKTX, ERNA, SLXN, CLYM, ERAS, NBTX, QTTB, SLGL
Tier‑1 research shortlist
The funnel above the map — the few names worth investigating first, re-assembled from the separate judgments (leadership · entry · fundamentals · theme) without collapsing them into a single score. Frozen, versioned, and unvalidated: a disciplined ordering of where to look, not a forecast or a buy list.
A‑list: empty this issue. No name cleared all three gates at once — a clean technical entry and a winner-grade ≥ B business and a confirmed-breadth theme. 3 winner-grade leaders (TSM, WST, EOG) sit near a pivot but in an unconfirmed-breadth theme; the others are extended or based well below their pivots. The two lists below split the axes; the gap between them is the read for this tape, not a defect.
Technical Tier‑1 — leaders at a clean entry now8Setup-ready leaders (plus any category-of-one at its pivot), ranked theme confirmation → grade → risk. Grade & theme are shown, not gated — a clean entry is not a recommendation.
FTNTDNA CCybersecurity · leadingRS 924% below the $150.07 pivotnewVVXDNA DDefense · emergingRS 88at the $85.01 pivot (+0.1%)newDCODNA FDefense · emergingRS 903% below the $155.00 pivotnewCATDNA DIndustrials · mixedRS 91at the $931.35 pivot (+3.0%)newAXGNDNA DSelective medtech · mixedRS 943% below the $44.22 pivotnewCNCDNA DHealthcare · insufficient-basketRS 86at the $63.50 pivot (+1.9%)newPSMTDNA DConsumer Staples · insufficient-basketRS 86at the $177.45 pivot (+2.0%)newMRKDNA FHealthcare · insufficient-basketRS 81at the $123.46 pivot (+2.2%)new
Quality Leaders — winner-grade ≥ B12High fundamental DNA regardless of entry — watch for a setup. ★ = nearing its pivot.
MUDNA AAI memory · insufficient-basketRS 9826% below the $1,089.29 pivotcat-of-oneTERDNA AAI memory · insufficient-basketRS 9518% below the $420.60 pivotcat-of-one★ TSMDNA AAI Semiconductors · leadingRS 888% below the $450.16 pivotNVDADNA AAI Semiconductors · leadingRS 7313% below the $232.28 pivotSNDKDNA BAI memory · insufficient-basketRS 9919% below the $1,861.00 pivotcat-of-oneAMDDNA BAI Semiconductors · leadingRS 9717% below the $546.44 pivotKLICDNA BAI memory · insufficient-basketRS 9413% below the $110.78 pivotHBMDNA BCopper · insufficient-basketRS 9125% below the $32.15 pivotCRWDDNA BCybersecurity · leadingRS 8917% below the $785.66 pivotTECKDNA BCopper · insufficient-basketRS 8316% below the $71.25 pivot★ WSTDNA BGLP-1 · insufficient-basketRS 773% below the $324.35 pivot★ EOGDNA BEnergy · brokenRS 744% below the $142.92 pivot
Leadership action board
Every leader, grouped by where it stands across the four separate judgments — leadership, group breadth, fundamentals, and entry. These are descriptive research states (“Setup-Ready”, never “Buy Now”), not trade advice — a disciplined ordering, not a forecast. 33 of 100 leaders sit in the four actionable groups today.
Setup-Ready Leaders8Confirmed leaders at or near a proper pivot — trend intact, risk defined.
AXGNRS 94Selective medtech3% below the $44.22 pivotFTNTRS 92Cybersecurity4% below the $150.07 pivotCATRS 91Industrialsat the $931.35 pivot (+3.0%)DCORS 90Defense3% below the $155.00 pivotVVXRS 88Defenseat the $85.01 pivot (+0.1%)CNCRS 86Healthcareat the $63.50 pivot (+1.9%)PSMTRS 86Consumer Staplesat the $177.45 pivot (+2.0%)MRKRS 81Healthcareat the $123.46 pivot (+2.2%)
Emerging Rotation Leaders3Leading while their group’s breadth is newly broadening.
Category-of-One Leaders8Exceptional bottom-up leadership the formal group can’t confirm yet.
SNDKRS 99AI memory19% below the $1,861.00 pivotMURS 98AI memory26% below the $1,089.29 pivotAEHRRS 98AI memory24% below the $121.80 pivotNBISRS 98Neocloud22% below the $278.84 pivotHPERS 96Neocloud31% below the $64.25 pivotIRENRS 96Neocloud30% below the $70.71 pivotLRCXRS 95AI memory14% below the $346.19 pivotTERRS 95AI memory18% below the $420.60 pivot
Ready Watchlist14Confirmed leaders without an immediate pivot entry — track for a setup.
UCTTRS 97AI Semiconductors12% below the $92.29 pivotHBMRS 91Copper25% below the $32.15 pivotNVTRS 91Data-center physical b9% below the $178.00 pivotVRTRS 90Data-center physical bneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $345.18OKTARS 89Cybersecurity20% below the $142.35 pivotTSMRS 88AI Semiconductors8% below the $450.16 pivotIARTRS 88Selective medtech5% below the $17.83 pivotCMIRS 85Industrials7% below the $694.44 pivotTECKRS 83Copper16% below the $71.25 pivotFCXRS 82Copper14% below the $72.09 pivotANETRS 82Data-center physical b15% below the $177.48 pivotLLYRS 81GLP-13% below the $1,166.29 pivotRRXRS 80Industrials7% below the $218.27 pivotSCCORS 80Copperneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $203.19
Extended — Wait for a Pullback22Leadership intact but the entry is extended; the constraint is timing.
Fundamental Leader, Technically Lagging2A strong business whose stock trails its group’s true leaders right now.
Broken / Avoid16Trend or leadership has deteriorated.
Leadership map
Theme statusLeadingExtended / parabolicFadingEmerging
✓ Near pivot price in its pivot zone→ Basing watch for breakout⏸ Wait strong, no setup yet⚠ Extended overbought, await pullback⌛ Too early unconfirmed bounce✕ Avoid downtrend
Leadership (stock vs its group — not a buy/sell call)group leader stock & group both leadcategory of one exceptional; group unconfirmedemerging rotation leads as the group broadenssympathy laggard strong group, trailing stockextended leader intact, entry extendedformer leader deteriorated
Industrials / AI-infrastructure capex
Current leadersCAT · PH · EMR · GNRC · CMI · RRX
+ New leadersCATnew breakoutCAT at $904.28 is just 3.5% off its $936.71 52-week high and far above its 50d ($827) and 200d ($643), a clean new-high uptrend riding the AI-infrastructure capex theme even with today's -3.85% day.CMIEMRreturningEMR re-enters on the industrials capex theme but is middling rather than breaking out: at $138.12 it sits essentially on its 50d ($138.11) and 200d ($137.49) and 16.4% below its $165.15 high, so it is a theme-driven re-add, not a strength leader.GNRCPHnew breakoutPH at $882.34 (+1.16%) holds above its 200DMA ($867.69) but sits 14.7% below its 52-wk high of $1034.96 and below its 50DMA ($908.73), added on AI-capex industrial-theme strength while it still consolidates beneath prior highs.RRX
Near pivot
$904.28+51.3% YTD+28.3% 3m-3.5% from 52-wk high
4% below high
Setupflat baseat the $931.35 pivot (+3.0%)~9% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 43/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 58/D
Mkt cap ~$417BP/E ~24xEV/EBITDA ~17xRev +4.3%GM 28.6%Op margin 13.9%ROIC 2.7%FCF yield 2.7%EPS -14.7%
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 91 puts CAT at the top of the Industrials/AI-capex cohort vs proxy XLI; +28.3% 3m and +51.3% 6m vastly outpace a low-double-digit XLI tape, and price sits just -3.5% off its 52w high while the broad industrial index is well below leadership pace.
Valuation. Datacenter/power-gen engine demand has re-rated CAT to a premium ~24x P/E and ~17x EV/EBITDA, rich versus its own cyclical history; modest +4.3% revenue growth and a -14.7% EPS contraction mean the multiple now leans on AI-infrastructure capex narrative rather than current earnings momentum.
Basing
↗ Parker-Hannifin
$882.34+1.2% YTD-5.3% 3m-14.7% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $921.98~12% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 49/D
Mkt cap ~$111BP/E ~26xEV/EBITDA ~18xRev +2.8%GM 37.3%Op margin 21.1%ROIC 3.2%FCF yield 3.3%EPS +13.5%
Relative strength. LAGGING-to-inline. RS percentile 62 is middling for the Industrials/AI-capex theme; -5.3% 3m and only +1.2% 6m trail proxy XLI, and at -14.7% off its 52w high PH has clearly handed leadership to CAT/GNRC despite the better earnings profile.
Valuation. High-quality industrial compounder: 37.3% gross margin, 21.1% operating margin and +13.5% EPS growth justify a ~26x P/E, but the price is consolidating -14.7% below its high, so the strong fundamentals are not yet being rewarded with relative-strength leadership.
Too early
↗ Emerson Electric
$138.12+1.5% YTD-2.1% 3m-16.4% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $145.57~6% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 40/F
Mkt cap ~$77BP/E ~22xEV/EBITDA ~15xRev +3.6%GM 53.2%Op margin 19.9%ROIC 1.8%FCF yield 4.0%EPS -2.7%
Relative strength. LAGGING. RS percentile 51 is squarely middle-of-pack; -2.1% 1m, -2.1% 3m and a flat +1.5% 6m all trail proxy XLI, and EMR sits -16.4% below its 52w high, the weakest relative posture in this Industrials/AI-capex group.
Valuation. Best-in-class 53.2% gross margin and a healthy 4.0% FCF yield support the automation thesis, but flat revenue (+3.6%), slightly negative EPS (-2.7%) and a market-laggard RS of 51 leave EMR a reasonably valued but un-confirmed name rather than an AI-capex leader.
Extended
$261.54+60.2% YTD+26.3% 3m-11.1% from 52-wk high
11% below high
Setupcontraction12% below the $294.18 pivot~13% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 67/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 49/D
Mkt cap ~$15.4BP/E n/m (depressed earnings)EV/EBITDA ~22xRev -2%GM 36.3%Op margin -0.9%ROIC -0.2%FCF yield 2.8%EPS -50.4%
Relative strength. LEADING (on price). RS percentile 89 ranks GNRC near the top of the theme; +26.3% 3m and +60.2% 6m crush proxy XLI on the power/backup-generation datacenter angle, though at -11.1% off its high it has cooled more than CAT.
Valuation. The +60.2% 6m run is pure datacenter-power narrative ahead of fundamentals: revenue is -2%, operating margin -0.9%, ROIC -0.2% and EPS -50.4%, so the rich EV/EBITDA reflects hope for a backup-power capex inflection rather than current profitability — a momentum-leading but fundamentally weak, extended name.
Basing
$651.22+27.9% YTD+18.4% 3m-9.3% from 52-wk high
9% below high
Setupshallow pullback7% below the $694.44 pivot~6% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 37/F
P/FCF ~33xFCF yield 3%Rev -1.3%GM 23%Op margin 7.5%ROIC ~2%EPS -27%~$90B cap
Relative strength. LEADING its theme proxy XLI. RS percentile 85 with +18.4% 3m vs XLI roughly flat over the same window; CMI also sits -9.3% off its 52w high while XLI is only ~-2.9% off, but the momentum spread (+18.4% 3m, +27.9% 6m) keeps Cummins ahead of the sector on relative strength.
Valuation. Leadership here is price/momentum, not fundamental acceleration: revenue is flat-to-down (-1.3%), EPS is contracting (-27%), and low-23% gross margin plus ~2% ROIC reflect a capital-heavy, cyclical engine/power business. At ~33x FCF the stock is pricing an AI/data-center power upcycle ahead of the income statement.
Basing
$204.40+44.9% YTD+4.3% 3m-13.5% from 52-wk high
14% below high
Setupshallow pullback7% below the $218.27 pivot~7% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 35/F
P/FCF ~17xFCF yield 5.9%Rev -1.6%GM 38%Op margin 11%ROIC ~1%EPS +42%~$13.6B cap
Relative strength. LEADING XLI on the 6-month view (RS percentile 80, +44.9% 6m vs a much smaller XLI gain), though it has cooled recently (+4.3% 3m, -0.9% 1m) and sits -13.5% below its 52w high vs XLI ~-2.9%, so near-term relative strength is fading even as the medium-term lead holds.
Valuation. Cheaper than the theme on cash flow (~17x P/FCF, 5.9% FCF yield) with strong EPS growth (+42%) and healthy 38% gross margin, but soft revenue (-1.6%) and a depressed ~1% ROIC reflect goodwill/leverage from the Rexnord deal still weighing on returns on capital. A reasonably priced, deleveraging-and-margin-recovery story rather than a momentum blow-off.
Energy / oil & gas
What’s driving it. A real, rate-insensitive supply shock (crude >$110 on Hormuz risk) drove the year. This is why energy decoupled from the metals/uranium flush and held up best on June 5 (-1.84% vs SPY -2.58%).
Durability. Short-term and fading at the margin. The YTD number is back-loaded and near-term momentum has stalled.
XLE is now below its 50d (58.25), its 1-month return is negative (-3.0%), and the verified leaders are all below their 50-EMA. Sustainable only if the supply premium persists; the tape is telling you the easy money has been made.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Mixed-to-strong, but the proposed roster was half-wrong on relative strength. EOG is the only genuine RS leader (+31.2% YTD, beats XLE) and is fundamentally the best: 11.4x P/E, 58% ROIC, ~6.9% FCF yield, 0.44x net leverage.
XOM is the index proxy by weight, not by strength (+24.6% YTD lags, lowest ROIC at 6.3%, richest multiple). WMB was mistagged a leader and is actually the weakest name (+19.7% YTD, negative 1m/3m) and stretched (28x P/E, 3.95x net leverage, 93% payout).
Current leadersEOG · XOM · COP · WMB
+ New leadersWMBnew breakoutWMB is the weakest energy add at $71.96 (-0.6% on the day), 10.1% below its $80.08 high and below its 50DMA ($73.63) though still above its 200DMA ($65.81), an early/unconfirmed theme inclusion rather than a confirmed RS breakout.
− Removed leadersCVXrotated outCVX at $187.31 is only -0.6% on the day and still above its 200DMA ($170.32) but has slipped below the 50DMA ($191.24) and was the weakest energy name vs XLE, reflecting the energy theme losing leadership rather than a CVX-specific break.
Basing
↗ EOG Resources
$137.78+31.2% YTD+4.9% 3m-9.3% from 52-wk high
9% below high
Setupshallow pullback4% below the $142.92 pivot~4% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · StrongValuation · FairWinner DNA · 78/B
P/E 15xEV/EBITDA 7xEV/S 3.6xRev +16%GM 79%ROIC 58%FCF yield 5.2%net debt 0.4x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading. Only candidate beating the XLE proxy YTD (+31.2% vs +29.0%).
Valuation. Cheapest large E&P on EV/EBITDA with the best returns profile. Revenue dipped with crude, not a demand problem.
Basing
↗ Exxon Mobil
$149.92+24.6% YTD-0.8% 3m-15.0% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $154.91~4% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · WeakValuation · RichWinner DNA · 36/F
P/E 22xEV/EBITDA 10xEV/S 2.1xRev +3%GM 38%ROIC 6%FCF yield 3.8%net debt 0.5x EBITDA
Relative strength. Lagging the proxy. Up +24.6% YTD vs XLE +29.0%, and furthest of the group below its 52w high.
Valuation. Fortress balance sheet and covered dividend, but the most expensive multiple in the group and the lowest ROIC. Sector proxy by weight, not by relative strength.
Too early
↗ ConocoPhillips
$117.14+25.2% YTD+0.1% 3m-13.8% from 52-wk high
14% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $126.00~11% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · MixedValuation · FairWinner DNA · 53/D
P/E 18xEV/EBITDA 7xEV/S 2.8xRev -2%GM 47%ROIC 7%FCF yield 11.6%net debt 0.7x EBITDA
Relative strength. Lagging. +25.2% YTD trails the XLE proxy, and it sits -4.4% below its 50-EMA after a negative month.
Valuation. Cheap on FCF yield (~14%) with a clean balance sheet, but the tape has not confirmed leadership. It needs to reclaim the 50-EMA ($122.49) before the thesis is buyable.
Too early
↗ The Williams Companies
$71.96+19.7% YTD-3.1% 3m-10.1% from 52-wk high
10% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $80.08~13% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · WeakValuation · RichWinner DNA · 46/D
P/E 33xEV/EBITDA 17xEV/S 10.3xRev -1%GM 82%ROIC 6%FCF yield 1.1%net debt 4.0x EBITDA
Relative strength. Lagging. Weakest of the group: +19.7% YTD trails the XLE proxy by ~9pp, with negative 1-month and 3-month returns.
Valuation. Real gas-infrastructure growth, but priced for it: P/E 28x and EV/EBITDA 14x are the richest here, FCF yield only ~1.4% and leverage near 4x. The 'decoupling toll-taker' claim is not visible in the tape, which lags on every return window.
AI Semiconductors / Compute
What’s driving it. The #1 secular driver of the year, but the proximate move was an expectations reset, not a demand break. Broadcom's AI revenue is +143% YoY and guided +200% to $16B; it simply missed the blowout bar.
Inverse-ETF dominance (SOXS +31.5%, SOXL -30.5%) confirms a leveraged-long flush.
Durability. Sustainable trend, extended entry. SMH is still +14.2% above its 50d and only -11.4% off its high after a -9.2% day, which is a pullback inside an intact trend, not a topping pattern.
This is the single highest-risk roster to assume is still leading, because the resolution between flush-and-resume and leadership-loss cannot be made in one session.
Leaders’ fundamental health. An RS-vs-quality inversion is the key finding. Three of four proposed dominant leaders actually LAG the SMH proxy (NVDA +8.6% YTD, AVGO +11.0%, TSM +29.9%, all below proxy +52.6%); only AMD leads on every horizon.
But the RS ranking inverts fundamental quality. NVDA and TSM are the strongest (56% and 45% net margins, 63% and 25% ROIC, net cash, 42x and 28x P/E) yet are the RS laggards.
AMD, the RS leader, is fundamentally weakest (10.7% op margin, ~176x trailing P/E, 5.4% ROIC) and most extended after +134% in 3 months. AVGO is broken near-term (below 50d, -22.1% off high) and rich at 81x.
Current leadersAMD · TSM · NVDA · AVGO · DELL · AAOI · MRVL · ALAB · ARM · UCTT
+ New leadersAAOIALABAMDnew breakoutAMD at $466.38 sits well above its 50d ($347) and 200d ($243) and just 14.6% below its $546.44 52-week high after a multi-fold RS-leading run, so it enters as a fresh breakout leader despite today's sharp -10.9% pullback off extended levels.ARMUCTT
Extended
$466.38+108.7% YTD+133.9% 3m-14.7% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupcontraction17% below the $546.44 pivot~15% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 79/B
P/E 175xEV/EBITDA 104xEV/S 21.9xRev +38%GM 53%ROIC 5%FCF yield 0.9%net cash
Relative strength. Leading. It is the only name in the group beating the SMH proxy on every horizon (3m +133.9% vs proxy +49.7%, YTD +108.7% vs +52.6%).
Valuation. Cheapest on EV/S (~10x) but by far the priciest on earnings: ~176x trailing P/E on a 10.7% operating margin. The stock is priced for an MI400/MI450 ramp that is still mostly committed-but-unrealized revenue.
Near pivot
$415.17+29.9% YTD+17.3% 3m-7.8% from 52-wk high
8% below high
Setupshallow pullback8% below the $450.16 pivot~8% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 22/100
Quality · StrongValuation · FairWinner DNA · 85/A
P/E 28xEV/EBITDA 17xEV/S 12.4xRev +35%GM 66%ROIC 25%FCF yield 2.2%net cash
Relative strength. Mixed. Strongest trend structure (closest to its high at -7.8%, widest MA spread) but its 3m and YTD returns trail the SMH proxy (+29.9% YTD vs +52.6%).
Valuation. Cheapest quality in the group: ~28x earnings for 45% net margins, 25% ROIC and net cash. The toll-taker on the whole roster's volume rather than a bet on one architecture.
Basing
$205.10+8.6% YTD+11.9% 3m-13.3% from 52-wk high
13% below high
Setupshallow pullback13% below the $232.28 pivot~12% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 42/100
Quality · StrongValuation · RichWinner DNA · 87/A
P/E 43xEV/EBITDA 36xEV/S 24.1xRev +85%GM 75%ROIC 63%FCF yield 1.9%net debt 0.0x EBITDA
Relative strength. Lagging on relative strength. It holds above its 50d ($202) and 200d ($188), but its YTD +8.6% badly trails the SMH proxy's +52.6% and AMD's +109%.
Valuation. Best fundamentals in the group at a not-unreasonable multiple: ~42x trailing earnings for 56% net margins, 65% revenue growth and ~$97B FCF. Premium leaves little room for a merely-in-line guide.
Too early
$385.73+11.0% YTD+15.9% 3m-22.1% from 52-wk high
22% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $495.00~22% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 68/C
P/E 98xEV/EBITDA 67xEV/S 36.5xRev +29%GM 66%ROIC 16%FCF yield 1.2%net debt 1.4x EBITDA
Relative strength. Lagging. The weakest name in the group: 1m -9.8%, below its 50d ($395), -22.1% from its high, and it trails the SMH proxy on every horizon.
Valuation. Rich at ~81x trailing earnings and ~50x EV/EBITDA, with the bull case increasingly back-end-loaded into a 2027 $100B AI narrative. Goodwill-heavy balance sheet (tangible book negative) and ~1.4x net leverage.
Extended
$394.35+213.3% YTD+169.3% 3m-16.0% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupcontraction19% below the $469.47 pivot~18% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 44/100
Quality · StrongValuation · RichWinner DNA · 66/C
P/E 47xEV/EBITDA 30xEV/S 3.1xRev +88%GM 18%ROIC 15%FCF yield 3.1%net debt 1.7x EBITDA
Relative strength. LEADING vs SMH on all horizons: YTD +213.3% vs +58.2%; 3m +169.3% vs +44.1%; 1m +82.3% vs +8.9%
Valuation. Strong cash generation (~$15B FCFE, 11% FY-end FCF yield) and a low ~0.84x EV/sales reflect the thin-margin (20% GM) hardware model, but negative book equity from aggressive buybacks and a ~47x trailing P/E after a 235% YTD run leave little room for execution slips.
Extended
$177.00+574.5% YTD+60.0% 3m-24.3% from 52-wk high
24% below high
Setupdeep pullback10% below the $194.96 pivot~24% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 52/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 34/F
P/FCF n/a (FCF yield -1.9%, cash-burning)Rev +82.8% (accel -48 decelerating)GM 31%Op margin -8.6%ROIC ~-0.2%EPS +84.8%~$14.2B cap
Relative strength. LEADING SMH by a wide margin. RS percentile 99 with a +574.5% 6m and +60% 3m run that dwarfs SMH; however it is now -24.3% off its 52w high (vs SMH ~-11% off its high) and fell ~-12.8% on the quote day, so it is a top-RS leader in a sharp pullback.
Valuation. A parabolic optical-transceiver name where price (+574% over 6m) has run far ahead of fundamentals: still operating at a loss (-8.6% op margin), burning cash (-1.9% FCF yield), negative ROIC, and revenue growth is decelerating sharply (accel -48). The 24% drawdown off the high into a -13% day flags a momentum unwind in an unprofitable, richly-bid stock.
Extended
$263.47+168.5% YTD+184.4% 3m-18.7% from 52-wk high
19% below high
Setupdeep pullback23% below the $324.20 pivot~19% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 50/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 57/D
P/FCF ~167xFCF yield 0.6%Rev +42%GM 48%Op margin 19%ROIC ~2%EPS +401%~$230B cap
Relative strength. LEADING SMH decisively. RS percentile 98 with +184.4% 3m and +64.7% 1m far outpacing the semiconductor ETF; the trade-off is froth — MRVL is now -18.7% below its 52w high vs SMH ~-11%, and it dropped ~-16.7% on the quote day, an outlier leader giving back gains faster than the group.
Valuation. Genuinely strong AI-custom-silicon growth (rev +42%, EPS +401%, 48% gross / 19% operating margin) but the valuation is stretched — ~167x free cash flow at just 0.6% FCF yield and only ~2% ROIC, so almost all the multiple is future expectation. After a near-vertical +184% 3m move, the -16.7% single-day reversal and -18.7% off the high make fresh entries chase-prone.
Extended
$317.06+107.9% YTD+159.2% 3m-14.9% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupcontraction17% below the $372.37 pivot~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 15/100
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 77/B
P/E ~240xEV/EBITDA ~240xEV/S ~64xRev +115% ($852.5M FY25 vs $396M)GM 76%ROE 16% / ROIC 12%FCF +$282M (~1% yield on live cap)net cash, current ratio 10x
Relative strength. LEADING the AI-semi theme proxy SMH (RS percentile 97). ALAB's +159% 3m / +108% 6m dwarfs SMH, which sits roughly +45% above its 200-day (569.69 vs 393.65) and is itself -11.4% off its high today.
A top-decile RS leader within the group.
Valuation. Hyper-growth (revenue more than doubled, swung from FY24 loss to 20% operating margin and 26% net margin) with a pristine net-cash balance sheet, but the live ~240x P/E and ~64x sales leave zero margin for a growth stumble — quality is real, the price is extreme.
Extended
$342.93+144.1% YTD+191.5% 3m-19.9% from 52-wk high
20% below high
Setupdeep pullback25% below the $427.99 pivot~21% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 46/100
Fundamentals · StretchedWinner DNA · 58/D
GM 94%operating margin 15%Rev +26.4% (decelerating, rev_accel -8.1)EPS growth -1.3%ROIC ~2%FCF yield ~0.3%
Relative strength. LEADING the AI-semi proxy SMH (RS percentile 97). ARM's +191% 3m / +144% 6m is far ahead of SMH (~+45% vs its 200-day), a clear top-decile leader, though today's -12.8% day pulled it ~20% off its high.
Valuation. Best-in-class 94% gross margins and a licensing/royalty model, but ~26% revenue growth is decelerating and EPS is flat while ROIC sits near 2% and FCF yield ~0.3% against a $365B cap — the multiple prices in AI-royalty dominance that the current fundamentals have not yet delivered.
Near pivot
$82.07+211.7% YTD+55.1% 3m-12.5% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupcontraction12% below the $92.29 pivot~13% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 53/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 30/F
GM 15% (thin, supply-chain assembler)operating margin 2.2%Rev -2.1%EPS growth -870.9% (near break-even base)ROIC ~-0.2%FCF yield ~-1.2%
Relative strength. LEADING the AI-semi proxy SMH on RS percentile (97) and on the trailing tape — +212% 6m vastly exceeds SMH's ~+45% vs its 200-day. Momentum has cooled near term (+2.7% 1m) as the stock digests its run just above the 50-day (~$77).
Valuation. A low-margin (15% gross, 2% operating) semi-cap supply-chain name whose +212% 6m move is a cyclical/beta re-rating, not earnings-driven — revenue is still shrinking, ROIC and FCF are slightly negative, so the entire move rides on a capex-cycle recovery rather than current profitability.
GLP-1 / obesity & large-cap pharma
What’s driving it. Structural, demand-driven obesity/GLP-1 adoption that is rate-insensitive. LLY at $1,131 is +20% above its 200d, and the green print while semis fell -10% is the tell that this acted as a defensive-growth safe harbor.
Durability. Sustainable. The driver is a multi-year demand ramp, not a positioning trade, and it sits within a Healthcare sector that held green on the day (XLV +0.61%, above both MAs).
The behavioral evidence is strong: independent leadership that went up when everything crowded went down.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong for the franchise leaders. Lilly is the verified standout, printing fresh highs on demand strength, well above trend.
The theme's quality is concentrated in the franchise owners; the speculative second-tier (VKTX-type clinical names) carries far more binary risk and is not the same trade.
Current leadersLLY · NVO · VKTX · ABBV · WST
Near pivot
$1,131.42+11.7% YTD+12.2% 3m-3.0% from 52-wk high
3% below high
Setupconsolidation3% below the $1,166.29 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 54/100
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 72/B
GM 85%operating margin 46%Rev +44.7%EPS +96%ROIC 8.9%FCF yield ~1.3%
Relative strength. LEADING its sector proxy XLV (RS percentile 81). LLY is +16% 1m and just 3% off a fresh 52-week high, while XLV is roughly flat-to-modestly-up (153.01, only ~+3% vs its 200-day and -4.7% off its own high) — LLY is the clear large-cap pharma leader.
Valuation. GLP-1-driven 45% revenue growth and 96% EPS growth at 85% gross / 46% operating margins is exceptional for a mega-cap, justifying a premium multiple; the ~1% trillion-dollar cap and ~1.3% FCF yield mean it is priced for sustained obesity-franchise dominance, with decelerating revenue momentum (rev_accel -11.3) the main thing to watch.
Avoid
$42.96-10.5% YTD+8.0% 3m-47.2% from 52-wk high
47% below high
Setupflat basebelow the 200-day — trend broken, $46.05 not a valid entry~9% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 70/B
P/E ~14xEV/EBITDA ~9.8xEV/S ~5xRev +6.4% (DKK309B, ~$48B)GM 81%ROE 53% / ROIC 30%FCF yield ~2%net debt/EBITDA 0.67x
Relative strength. LAGGING the theme proxy XLV. NVO RS percentile is just 26, and over 3m it is +8% vs XLV roughly flat (~+0.2%, 153.01 vs ~152.7 three months ago); but over 6m NVO is -10.5% and sits -47% below its 52w high while XLV is only ~5% off its own high.
A bounce within a deep downtrend, not leadership.
Valuation. Elite franchise economics (81% gross margin, 53% ROE, 30% ROIC) now available at a deeply reset ~14x trailing P/E and ~9.8x EV/EBITDA after the 47% drawdown — cheap for the quality, but multiple compression reflects real GLP-1 competitive and pricing concerns, so it is a value-trap risk until price stabilizes.
Avoid
$28.45-26.2% YTD-15.3% 3m-34.1% from 52-wk high
34% below high
Setupcontractionbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $33.16 not a valid entry~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 11/F
Pre-revenue clinical biotechRev $0R&D $345M (FY25)Net loss -$360M (EPS -$3.19)no product GMROE -56% / ROIC -62%FCF -$279M~$639M net cash, current ratio 9.3x, ~zero debt
Relative strength. LAGGING the theme proxy XLV badly. RS percentile 25, with 1m -9.9% / 3m -15.3% / 6m -26.2% versus XLV roughly flat over 3m (~+0.2%) and ~+4.5% over 1m.
A high-beta clinical name de-rating while the sector holds, the opposite of leadership.
Valuation. No earnings or revenue to value on (P/E and EV/EBITDA are negative/meaningless) — it is a binary clinical-pipeline bet on its oral and injectable obesity candidates, supported by a strong ~$639M net-cash balance sheet but burning ~$280M/yr. With price -34% from highs and momentum negative, fundamentals offer no floor.
Near pivot
↗ AbbVie
$227.23+0.1% YTD-0.1% 3m-7.2% from 52-wk high
7% below high
Setupflat basealready 3% past the $220.01 pivot~5% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 53/D
GM 84%operating margin 35%Rev +8.6% growthEPS -1.4%ROIC ~4%FCF yield 5.2%large-cap (~$401B mkt cap), goodwill/debt-heavy post-Allergan
Relative strength. LEADING the theme proxy XLV. RS percentile 68, and the +12.1% 1m move handily beats XLV's ~+4.5% (153.01 vs 50-day avg 146.48); ABBV sits only -7.2% from its 52w high and back above its 50/200-day averages.
Flat over 3m/6m but recently accelerating ahead of the sector.
Valuation. High-margin (84% GM, 35% op margin) growing immunology franchise with a healthy 5.2% FCF yield funding the dividend, but reported ROIC of only ~4% reflects heavy goodwill and leverage from acquisitions plus flat EPS — quality cash generation paired with a stretched balance sheet, hence a mixed read.
Extended
↗ West Pharmaceutical Services
$314.50+11.7% YTD+26.8% 3m-4.9% from 52-wk high
5% below high
Setupflat base3% below the $324.35 pivot~5% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 46/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 70/B
GM 37.8%operating margin 19.5%Rev +6.3% growthEPS +1.6%ROIC ~3.4%FCF yield ~2%~$22B mkt cap, clean balance sheet
Relative strength. LEADING the theme proxy XLV clearly. RS percentile 77, with a +26.8% 3m run versus XLV roughly flat (~+0.2%) and +11.7% over 6m; price sits only -4.9% from its 52w high and well above the 50-day ($288.6) and 200-day ($267.2) averages.
A picks-and-shovels GLP-1 beneficiary outperforming the group.
Valuation. Quality injectable-delivery franchise levered to GLP-1 vial/syringe demand, with solid ~38% gross and ~20% operating margins, but after a +27% 3-month run it trades at a premium with a thin ~2% FCF yield and modest ~3.4% reported ROIC — strong business, rich price, so adding here is chasing extension rather than buying value.
Cybersecurity
What’s driving it. Application-AI security demand: AI threat detection plus securing AI deployments. CRWD at $671 is +41% above its 200d and +33% above its 50d, with the 50d>200d structure showing an accelerating uptrend through 2026.
Durability. Sustainable but lower-conviction. The -6.7% on June 5 was beta to the tech flush, not a fundamental break, and cyber held up materially better than broad software (IGV is -18.8% off its high, below its 200d).
The conviction is medium because it is still software-adjacent and would take collateral damage in a deeper tech derate.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong leaders, premium valuations. CRWD is the accelerating trend leader.
The group (PANW, FTNT, ZS) are high-growth, high-margin recurring-revenue software names, but they carry rich multiples typical of the cohort, so a multiple-compression episode is the main risk rather than balance-sheet stress.
Current leadersCRWD · PANW · FTNT · ZS · BB · OKTA
+ New leadersBBOKTA
Extended
$671.02+28% YTD+56.4% 3m-14.6% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupcontraction17% below the $785.66 pivot~15% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 70/B
Mkt cap ~$171BP/S ~38x (TTM rev ~$4.5B)Rev +23.2%GM 75.3%Op margin -2.2% (GAAP)ROIC ~-0.4%FCF yield 0.8%EPS +72.5%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 89; +56.4% 3m vs CIBR proxy ~+21% YTD and trading within ~8% of its own high.
CRWD's 3m return is roughly 2.5x the theme ETF.
Valuation. Premier next-gen security platform with 75% gross margins and re-accelerating growth (rev accel 2.3), but GAAP still near breakeven and ~38x sales leaves no valuation cushion. Quality franchise priced for perfection.
Extended
$272.05+39% YTD+64.8% 3m-10.2% from 52-wk high
10% below high
Setupshallow pullback11% below the $302.95 pivot~11% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 15/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 51/D
Mkt cap ~$185BP/S ~22x (TTM rev ~$8.4B)Rev +19.5%GM 67.6%Op margin -6.1% (GAAP)ROIC ~-0.5%FCF yield 2.2%EPS -34.3%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 90; +64.8% 3m vs CIBR proxy ~+21% YTD, roughly 3x the theme ETF, and ~10% off its own high.
Clear theme leader.
Valuation. Largest scaled cybersecurity platform with strong rev acceleration (rev accel 16.2) and ~2.2% FCF yield, but GAAP EPS down 34% and ~22x sales is rich. Platformization story intact; valuation demands continued execution.
Near pivot
$144.68+76.8% YTD+74.8% 3m-2.9% from 52-wk high
3% below high
Setupconsolidation4% below the $150.07 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 44/100
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 65/C
Mkt cap ~$106BP/S ~16x (TTM rev ~$6.6B)Rev +14.2%GM 79.6%Op margin 32.8%ROIC ~8.3%FCF yield 2.3%EPS +7.5%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 92 (top of the group); +74.8% 3m vs CIBR proxy ~+21% YTD and sitting right at its 52w high (only 2.9% below).
The strongest leader in the theme.
Valuation. Best fundamental profile in the group: GAAP-profitable with a 33% operating margin, 80% gross margins and positive ROIC, unlike its peers. ~16x sales is steep but justified by genuine profitability and the cleanest balance sheet of the cohort.
Avoid
$130.78-45.9% YTD-19.6% 3m-61.2% from 52-wk high
61% below high
Setupdeep pullbackbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $157.70 not a valid entry~18% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 53/D
Mkt cap ~$21BP/S ~6.7xEV/S ~6.1x (TTM rev ~$3.17B)Rev +25.4% (Q3 $850M vs $678M)GM 77.3%Op margin -3.5% (GAAP)ROIC ~-0.6%FCF positive (~$0.2B/q)EPS negative (-$0.09 Q3)net cash (~$1.7B)
Relative strength. LAGGING badly. RS percentile 10 (bottom decile); -19.6% 3m and -45.9% over 6m while the CIBR proxy is +21% YTD.
ZS is the sole broken name in an otherwise strong theme, trading below both its 50-day ($143) and 200-day ($220) averages.
Valuation. Fundamentals are still healthy: 25% revenue growth, 77% gross margins, positive free cash flow and net cash. The collapse is a price/sentiment de-rating (now ~6-7x sales, cheapest of the cohort) rather than a business break, but the chart is broken and the trend is firmly down.
Extended
$9.41+121.4% YTD+170.4% 3m-12.3% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupflat basealready 30% past the $6.61 pivot~11% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 52/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 66/C
Mkt cap ~$5.5BGM 77%Op margin 17%Rev +2.4%EPS +166%ROIC ~3%FCF yield 0.7%rev accel +10.4pp
Relative strength. LEADING the Cybersecurity theme. RS percentile 96 (top ~4% of universe); 3m return +170% dwarfs proxy CIBR (price $86.70, only ~+20% above its $72 200DMA).
Price sits ~69% above its 50DMA ($5.57) and ~114% above 200DMA ($4.40) — far steeper than the ETF's trend.
Valuation. High-software gross margin (77%) and a sharp EPS turnaround, but revenue is barely growing (+2.4%) and capital returns are thin (ROIC ~3%, FCF yield 0.7%) — the +170% 3m run is sentiment/turnaround re-rating well ahead of fundamentals, so valuation is stretched relative to the modest top-line.
Near pivot
$118.72+38.2% YTD+48.9% 3m-16.6% from 52-wk high
17% below high
Setupcontraction20% below the $142.35 pivot~17% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 15/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 54/D
Mkt cap ~$19.7BGM 78%Op margin 7.3%Rev +11.7% ($)EPS +90.7%ROIC ~1%FCF yield 3.1%rev accel -0.4pp
Relative strength. LEADING the Cybersecurity theme. RS percentile 89; 3m return +48.9% vs proxy CIBR (~+20% above its 200DMA).
Price ~44% above 50DMA ($82.71) and ~38% above 200DMA ($85.79), a stronger trend than the ETF.
Valuation. Best-in-class 78% gross margin and improving FCF (yield ~3%) with double-digit revenue growth, but GAAP profitability is still thin (op margin 7%, ROIC ~1%) and growth is no longer accelerating; reasonable for an identity-security leader but priced for continued margin expansion.
Copper — AI/electrification structural leader
What’s driving it. A genuine structural supply deficit. The ICSG market is flipping to deficit, the annual TC/RC benchmark settled at $0/tonne (lowest ever), and Grasberg is at ~50% capacity through 2H27.
This is AI/electrification demand meeting constrained supply.
Durability. Sustainable thesis, but the equities are high-beta and just took a hard, indiscriminate -10.6% flush (COPX). The metal's trend held (COPX still above its 200d), so the flush was rate-repricing not a copper-fundamentals event.
Durable on the commodity; volatile on the miners.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Mixed across the roster, and the leadership ranking was partly wrong. TECK and FCX are the genuine live RS leaders (both beat COPX on every window).
But TECK's quality is weak under the cheap headline: ROIC 2.8% and FY25 free cash flow is NEGATIVE (-C$1.0B) on heavy growth capex. FCX is Mixed: rich ~33x P/E on thin FCF (~1.5% yield) with a Grasberg guidance cut (2026 copper ~3.4B to ~3.1B lb).
SCCO is the only clearly Strong fundamental (57% GM, 32% net margin, 23% ROIC) but is premium-priced and its near-term momentum has cooled (below 50d, lags proxy 1m/3m). ERO is broken (-8.7% YTD, broke -16.2% on the day, sitting on its 200d) and should be avoided, not chased.
Current leadersTECK · FCX · SCCO · ERO · HBM
+ New leadersERObroken downtrendERO genuinely broke down, plunging -16.2% today to $25.78 — now 35.2% below its $39.80 52-week high, below its 50d ($28) and barely clinging to its 200d ($25.37) — so its removal reflects real deterioration, not mere non-re-pick.HBM
Basing
$61.67+29.2% YTD+22.0% 3m-13.4% from 52-wk high
13% below high
Setupcontraction16% below the $71.25 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 19/100
Quality · MixedValuation · FairWinner DNA · 70/B
P/E 23xEV/EBITDA 9xEV/S 3.5xRev +72%GM 43%ROIC 3%FCF yield -3.1%net debt 1.2x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading — strongest tape in the cohort. 3mo +22.0% and YTD +29.2% both crush the COPX proxy (+1.0% / +11.3%); only name above both its 50d and 200d.
Valuation. Cheap on book (P/B 1.3x) but low-quality earnings base — ROIC under 3% and free cash flow is clearly negative on heavy QB/Highland Valley growth capex (~2x operating cash flow). Cheapness is the build-out, not a margin moat.
Basing
$63.37+23.5% YTD+6.8% 3m-12.1% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupcontraction14% below the $72.09 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 50/D
P/E 46xEV/EBITDA 13xEV/S 4.4xRev +12%GM 27%ROIC 8%FCF yield 1.1%net debt 0.9x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading. Beats the copper-miner proxy (COPX) on every window — YTD +23.5% vs proxy +11.3%, 3mo +6.8% vs +1.0%.
Valuation. Rich multiple on depressed earnings. P/E ~33x with bottom-line net margin only 8.6% (Grasberg JV minority interest is heavy) and 2026 sales guided down to ~3.1B lb post mud-rush.
Too early
$172.97+18.3% YTD-6.5% 3m-22.0% from 52-wk high
22% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $203.19~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 84/A
P/E 38xEV/EBITDA 21xEV/S 12.5xRev +36%GM 65%ROIC 23%FCF yield 2.1%net debt 0.4x EBITDA
Relative strength. Mixed. Leads the proxy YTD (+18.3% vs +11.3%) but has lagged it on 1mo (-5.0%) and 3mo (-6.5%) as money rotated to the leveraged names — momentum has cooled.
Valuation. Highest quality, most expensive way to own the theme. P/E ~28x and P/B ~10.9x — best margins/returns/balance sheet in the group but priced for it, so it carries the most multiple-compression risk if copper rolls.
Avoid
$25.78-8.7% YTD-7.0% 3m-35.2% from 52-wk high
35% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $32.63~22% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · StrongValuation · FairWinner DNA · 74/B
P/E 12xEV/EBITDA 9xEV/S 4.8xRev +107%GM 40%ROIC 13%FCF yield 2.8%net debt 1.3x EBITDA
Relative strength. Lagging — the broken name. Down -8.7% YTD while the COPX proxy is +11.3%; it has trailed the proxy on every window (1m, 3m, YTD).
Valuation. Cheap (P/E ~11x) and earnings inflected on the Tucuma ramp, but the discount reflects single-asset/single-country risk and thin liquidity (current ratio 1.06x, net debt/EBITDA 1.28x). Cheapness is risk-pricing, not value.
Basing
$25.66+48.0% YTD+14.1% 3m-20.2% from 52-wk high
20% below high
Setupdeep pullback25% below the $32.15 pivot~20% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 76/B
Mkt cap ~$10.2BGM 33%Op margin 33%Rev +9.6%EPS +612%ROIC ~2%FCF yield 2.5%rev accel +54.6pp
Relative strength. LEADING the Copper theme. RS percentile 91; 6m return +48% vs proxy COPX (price $80.64, ~+12% above its $72 200DMA).
HBM price ~6% above 50DMA ($24.29) and ~28% above 200DMA ($20.03), outpacing the miners ETF's trend.
Valuation. Operating leverage is showing through (op margin 33%, EPS +612%, revenue re-accelerating +54.6pp) as copper prices firm, though through-cycle ROIC (~2%) and modest FCF yield keep it a commodity-cyclical rather than a compounder; today's -14.8% drop with COPX -10.6% is a sharp commodity-driven pullback off the high.
Defense / aerospace & drones
What’s driving it. A structural, decade-long defense spending floor from the 2025 Hague NATO commitment. ITA at 229.45 is above its 50d (+2.5%) and 200d (+4.9%) with the best 1-month return in the cyclical set (+6.5%).
Durability. Sustainable for the primes, broken for the fringe. The spending floor is multi-year and policy-anchored.
The split is the key insight: leadership is in established primes (ITA resilient), NOT speculative drone satellites (KTOS -7.7%, below its 200d, -56% off its high). Chase the primes, avoid the drone names.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong in aggregate. The primes (RTX, LMT, NOC, GD) are durable cash generators with multi-year visible backlogs tied to government budgets, which is exactly why ITA held on a risk-off day.
Lower cyclicality and policy-backed demand make this the most defensible non-AI cyclical.
Current leadersGE · RTX · LMT · NOC · GD · MRCY · DCO · PKE · VVX · ESLT
+ New leadersDCOESLTGDnew breakoutGD at $346.44 (+1.45% on the day) is reclaiming leadership just 6.3% below its 52-wk high of $369.70 and trades above both its 50DMA ($340.36) and 200DMA ($342.18), a fresh RS breakout within the defense theme.LMTdisplaced incumbentLMT at $523.76 is a laggard within the defense theme, sitting a steep 24.3% below its 52-wk high of $692 and still below both its 50DMA ($557.40) and 200DMA ($534.06), so it is riding theme rotation rather than its own strength.MRCYNOCdisplaced incumbentNOC at $544.40 (-0.14% on the day) is the weakest defense leg, sitting 29.7% below its 52-wk high of $774 and below both its 50DMA ($606.81) and 200DMA ($618.42), so it surfaced on defense-theme rotation rather than individual RS.PKEVVX
− Removed leadersAVAVbroken downtrendAVAV genuinely broke down: $185.92 (-9.0% on the day), a brutal 55.5% below its $417.86 high, sitting on its 50DMA ($185.14) and far below its 200DMA ($261.61), so the prior 1m bounce has failed.KTOSbroken downtrendKTOS is genuinely broken, trading $58.52 below both its 50d ($64.40) and 200d ($80.52) MAs and a brutal -56.3% off its $134 high after another -7.7% day, fully consistent with its prior broken-avoid call and badly lagging its defense proxy.PLTRbroken downtrendPLTR at $135.53 broke below its 50DMA ($141.55), sits well under its 200DMA ($161.35), and is 34.7% off its $207.52 high after a -4.35% day, confirming the broken-avoid downtrend.
Near pivot
$328.00+12.7% YTD+1.9% 3m-5.9% from 52-wk high
6% below high
Setupconsolidationat the $332.49 pivot (+1.4%)~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 51/D
Mkt cap ~$342.7BGM 34%Op margin 18.5%Rev +18.6%EPS +35.6%ROIC ~2%FCF yield 2.1%rev accel -6.5pp
Relative strength. Roughly IN-LINE-to-slightly-LEADING the Defense/aerospace theme. RS percentile 73; 6m return +12.7% vs proxy ITA (price $229.45, ~+4.9% above its $218.76 200DMA).
GE price ~10% above 50DMA ($297.09) and ~9% above 200DMA ($301.80), a modestly stronger trend than the ETF; the soft 3m (+1.9%) keeps it from clear leadership.
Valuation. Pure-play aerospace with strong double-digit revenue growth (+18.6%) and EPS (+35.6%) on a wide-moat engine/aftermarket franchise; only 5.9% off its high and trading above both moving averages, so it is a quality leader at a premium multiple rather than a value entry.
Basing
$180.99+6% YTD-13.1% 3m-15.6% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupreclaim setupat the $179.93 pivot but back below the 50-day~5% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 54/D
P/E ~38xEV/EBITDA ~19xEV/S ~3.4xRev +9.7% (~$83B)GM 19.5%op margin 9.4%ROIC ~1.5%FCF yield 3.4%EPS +39.7%net debt (~$40B, levered)
Relative strength. Roughly in-line to modestly LEADING the defense theme. RS percentile 62 sits above the group median, and ret_1m +2.4% beats a soft tape, but the -13.1% 3m drawdown is steeper than the ITA proxy (proxy ~8.5% off its $250.65 high vs RTX 15.6% off).
RTX trades right at its 200-day (~$181) while ITA holds above both MAs.
Valuation. Premium ~38x P/E and 3.4x sales reflect commercial-aero recovery and a record backlog, but very low ROIC (~1.5%, GTF charge-depressed) and a 19.5% gross margin make the multiple demanding; growth is accelerating (rev +9.7%, EPS +39.7%) which supports a re-rate if FCF (3.4% yield) keeps compounding.
Avoid
$523.76+17.4% YTD-21.1% 3m-24.3% from 52-wk high
24% below high
Setupflat basebelow the 200-day — trend broken, $541.21 not a valid entry~6% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 49/D
P/E ~24xEV/EBITDA 16.7xEV/S 1.72xRev +5.6% ($75.1B)GM 10.2%op margin 10.3%ROE 74.6%ROIC 17.4%FCF ~$8.3B (yield 6.2%)net debt/EBITDA 2.3x
Relative strength. LAGGING the defense theme. RS percentile 54 is mid-pack and the -21.1% 3m return badly trails the ITA proxy (proxy ~8.5% off its high vs LMT 24.3% off its $692 high).
Price ($524) sits below both the 50-day (~$557) and 200-day (~$534), versus ITA holding above both.
Valuation. Optically cheap on cash flow (6.2% FCF yield, 1.7x EV/S, 17.4% ROIC) but the 10.2% gross margin and recent classified-program charges have capped EPS (FY25 EPS $21.49, down y/y); the 74.6% ROE is buyback-inflated on a thin equity base, so this is a value/income story under technical repair, not a momentum leader.
Avoid
$544.40-1.2% YTD-27.1% 3m-29.7% from 52-wk high
30% below high
Setupconsolidationbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $615.00 not a valid entry~14% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 40/F
P/E ~18.7xEV/EBITDA 13.5xEV/S 2.32xRev +2.2% ($42.0B)GM 19.8%op margin 10.2%ROE 25.1%ROIC 9.2%FCF yield 4.0%net debt/EBITDA 2.1x
Relative strength. Clearly LAGGING the theme and the weakest of the group. RS percentile 36 is bottom-quartile and the -27.1% 3m / -1.4% 1m returns trail the ITA proxy markedly (proxy ~8.5% off its high vs NOC ~30% off its $774 high).
Price ($544) is well below both the 50-day (~$607) and 200-day (~$618).
Valuation. Cheapest defense prime on EV/EBITDA (13.5x) and P/E (~18.7x) with the best gross margin of the group (19.8%), but slowest revenue growth (+2.2%) and lingering B-21 cost-overrun overhang explain the discount and the broken chart; fundamentals are solid-but-stagnant, leaving a value case without a momentum catalyst yet.
Near pivot
$346.44+1.8% YTD-4.3% 3m-6.3% from 52-wk high
6% below high
Setupflat baseat the $351.36 pivot (+1.4%)~5% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 54/D
P/E ~23xEV/EBITDA ~16xEV/S ~2.1xRev +10.1% (~$49B)GM 14.9%op margin 10.1%ROIC ~2.8%FCF yield 6.5%EPS +13.3%rev decel (accel -2.8)
Relative strength. LEADING the defense group on relative strength. Only 6.3% off its $369.70 52w high versus the ITA proxy ~8.5% off its high, with the shallowest 3m drawdown of the primes (-4.3% vs RTX -13%, LMT -21%, NOC -27%).
Price ($346) sits above both the 50-day (~$340) and 200-day (~$342), mirroring the proxy's posture.
Valuation. Best-positioned defense name: double-digit revenue growth (+10.1%), EPS +13.3% and a healthy 6.5% FCF yield justify a ~23x P/E, with Gulfstream and Marine Systems (Columbia/Virginia subs) backlog underpinning durable growth; the low reported ROIC (~2.8%) is the one soft spot but cash generation and constructive chart support the leadership read.
Extended
$111.27+56% YTD+24.5% 3m-5.2% from 52-wk high
5% below high
Setupflat base7% below the $118.57 pivot~10% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 34/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 31/F
P/E n/m (negative op)EV/S ~3.2x ($6.7B cap on ~$0.9B rev base)Rev +7%GM 26%Op margin -4.6%ROIC ~-0.4%FCF yield ~1.1%turnaround, modest leverage
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 91 vs the ITA aerospace/defense proxy; MRCY's +24.5% 3m and +26.4% 1m dwarf ITA, which sits ~8.5% below its own 52w high and only ~5% over its 200d avg — the proxy is consolidating while MRCY breaks out.
Valuation. A defense-electronics turnaround: still loss-making at the operating line (-4.6%) with negative ROIC, but FCF has turned slightly positive (~1.1% yield) and revenue reaccelerating modestly. Multiple (~3x sales) prices in margin recovery that is not yet in the financials.
Near pivot
$149.89+66.5% YTD+14% 3m-4.1% from 52-wk high
4% below high
Setupflat base3% below the $155.00 pivot~6% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 51/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 38/F
P/E n/m (EPS -208% swing)EV/S ~2.7x (~$2.26B cap on ~$0.8B rev)Rev +4.9%GM 27.7%Op margin -40.3% (charge-distorted)ROIC ~1.8%FCF yield ~-1.6%aerospace structures
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 90 vs the ITA proxy; DCO's +14% 3m and +66.5% 6m far exceed ITA, which is range-bound ~8.5% off its 52w high — DCO is well above its 200d avg ($111.80 vs $149.89) and near new highs.
Valuation. Headline operating margin (-40.3%) and the -208% EPS swing point to large one-time charges distorting the period; underlying ROIC is barely positive (~1.8%) and FCF yield is negative. The stock is pricing a structures-cycle recovery the income statement has not yet confirmed.
Basing
$32.50+66.4% YTD+18.9% 3m-14.9% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $38.20~21% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 46/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 77/B
P/E elevated (~$679M cap, small earnings base)EV/S ~4xRev +7.5% (accelerating, rev_accel +22.3)GM 34.1%Op margin 21%ROIC ~2.4%EPS +21%FCF yield ~0.5%net cash, debt-free
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 90 vs the ITA proxy; +18.9% 3m and +66.4% 6m beat ITA handily, though PKE has pulled back -2.7% over the last month and now sits ~15% below its 52w high while ITA holds ~8.5% off its high.
Valuation. Highest-quality margin profile of the group (GM 34%, op margin 21%, accelerating revenue, debt-free net-cash balance sheet) but a rich ~4x sales / high P/E reflects the small earnings base. Quality is real; valuation leaves little margin of safety, and the -15% pullback from highs reflects digestion of the run.
Near pivot
$84.94+49.6% YTD+16.3% 3m-0.05% from 52-wk high
at 52-wk high
Setupconsolidationat the $85.01 pivot (+0.1%)~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 64/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 56/D
P/E ~moderate (EPS +125.9%)EV/S ~0.6x (~$2.66B cap on ~$4B+ rev — low-margin services)Rev +3.7%GM 8.6%Op margin 4.2%ROIC ~1.7%FCF yield ~5%defense-services scale, levered
Relative strength. LEADING. RS percentile 88 vs the ITA proxy; VVX's +16.3% 3m and +49.6% 6m crush ITA, and it is printing fresh 52w highs (price $84.94 vs yearHigh $84.98) while ITA sits ~8.5% below its high.
Valuation. A low-margin defense-services integrator (GM ~9%, op margin ~4%) trading at a cheap ~0.6x sales with a healthy ~5% FCF yield and sharply improving EPS (+126%). The cheapness reflects thin margins and leverage; the FCF and EPS inflection support the breakout to new highs.
Basing
$823.36+71.7% YTD-8.8% 3m-19.0% from 52-wk high
19% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $902.18~10% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 63/C
Mkt cap ~$38.6BGM 24.7%Op margin 9%ROIC 2.5%FCF yield 1.4%Rev +18.4%EPS +60.2%rev accel -2.3ppbelow 50-day ($848), above 200-day ($656)
Relative strength. LEADING its theme. RS percentile 87 vs the iShares Aerospace & Defense proxy ITA.
ESLT is +71.7% over 6m and trades ~25% above its 200-day ($656), a far stronger absolute move than ITA, which sits ~8.5% below its own high. ESLT's -8.8% 3m vs ITA near its highs reflects a sharper post-run pullback, not loss of leadership.
Valuation. Strong topline (+18.4%) and explosive EPS growth (+60.2%) on the defense super-cycle, but thin 24.7% gross margin, single-digit ROIC (2.5%) and a 1.4% FCF yield make the ~$38.6B cap demanding; quality lags the growth, so valuation rests on continued backlog conversion.
Data-center physical buildout — cooling & electricals
What’s driving it. A framed $3-4T AI-infrastructure spend through the end of the decade: liquid cooling, power distribution, AI-Ethernet. VRT is +71% YTD with a ~$15B backlog (+109% YoY, 2.9x book-to-bill); NVT +52% YTD holding closest to its high (-8.5%).
Durability. Sustainable demand, extended entry, and one roster correction. The theme is intact (VRT, NVT, ETN, ANET all well above their 200d).
ANET has the best near-term tape (only name positive over 1 month). The fragility tell: these fell ~2x the S&P on June 5, so they now trade as crowded AI-capex beta vulnerable to any hyperscaler-capex-deceleration scare.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong for four of five; one mistag. VRT, NVT, ETN, ANET are all fundamentally Strong: ANET is the cleanest (net cash, 64% GM, 43% op margin) though richest on sales (EV/S 18x); NVT is cheapest (23x P/E); VRT is the purest expression (18.5% op margin, 18.5% ROIC).
GEV was mistagged as a lower-beta leader: it is actually the worst 1-month performer (-16.6%), the ONLY name below its 50d, a blended conglomerate (GM ~20%, EBIT ~7%) where data-center is a minority of a $38B base, and its FY25 ROE is flattered by a one-off ~$2.05B tax benefit (true ROIC ~6.3%). GEV is extended-chasing, not lower-beta leadership.
Current leadersVRT · NVT · ETN · ANET
− Removed leadersPWRstill strong droppedDespite a -3.35% day, PWR at $695.11 remains structurally strong — only 11.9% below its $788.75 high and comfortably above both its 50DMA ($660.42) and 200DMA ($505.88) — so this is a not-re-surfaced near-term wobble, not genuine deterioration.
Basing
$300.51+71.1% YTD+24.3% 3m-20.9% from 52-wk high
21% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $345.18~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 70/B
P/E 96xEV/EBITDA 59xEV/S 12.8xRev +30%GM 38%ROIC 19%FCF yield 1.5%net debt 0.8x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading. Up 71% YTD and 40% above its 200d SMA ($214), far ahead of SPY.
Valuation. Premium multiple already prices sustained ~30% liquid-cooling growth. A hyperscaler capex pause would hit it hardest.
Near pivot
$162.86+52.4% YTD+53.6% 3m-8.5% from 52-wk high
8% below high
Setupshallow pullback9% below the $178.00 pivot~10% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 59/100
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 61/C
P/E 40xEV/EBITDA 37xEV/S 8.0xRev +53%GM 36%ROIC 8%FCF yield 1.3%net debt 1.8x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading. Up 52% YTD and 41% above its 200d SMA ($116); only 8.5% off its high.
Valuation. Cheapest multiple of the group and holding closest to its high. Smallest cap (~$26B) so it overshoots both ways.
Basing
↗ Eaton Corporation
$395.94+21.0% YTD+13.8% 3m-9.1% from 52-wk high
9% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $426.59~8% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 55/D
P/E 40xEV/EBITDA 30xEV/S 6.5xRev +17%GM 36%ROIC 13%FCF yield 2.7%net debt 1.8x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading but quieter. Up 21% YTD, above its 200d ($366) and right at its 50d ($397).
Valuation. Lowest-beta, highest-quality way to own the buildout. Diversification dilutes pure DC torque — rises less and falls less than VRT/NVT.
Near pivot
$154.27+15.5% YTD+16.1% 3m-14.2% from 52-wk high
14% below high
Setupcontraction15% below the $177.48 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 62/100
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 69/C
P/E 63xEV/EBITDA 55xEV/S 24.1xRev +35%GM 62%ROIC 23%FCF yield 1.9%net cash
Relative strength. Leading with the best near-term tape — the only name of the five still positive over 1 month, above both its 50d ($151) and 200d ($141).
Valuation. Best margins and balance sheet in the group but the richest sales multiple (EV/S 18x). High-beta AI proxy — doubly exposed to any hyperscaler capex deceleration.
Healthcare / pharma laggard-to-leader turn
What’s driving it. A defensive-value rotation off the AI unwind, plus genuine company-level turnarounds. All four verified names are dramatically outperforming a roughly-flat XLV YTD, so the laggard-to-leader thesis holds on the live tape.
Durability. The SECTOR reclaim is early; the managed-care vanguard is NOT early. XLV reclaiming its 200d is the fresh, early part with room to run (~5% below its high).
But the leading-edge names have already run hard: UNH/ELV are at fresh 52-week highs after V-shaped recoveries (both up ~40-45% over 3 months) and are extended-chasing here. Biotech is the weaker sub-group (XBI -3.56%), so the durable strength is large-cap pharma, not speculative biotech.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Mixed, with one quality anchor and one correction. MRK is the only Strong name and the only constructive entry: 18% ROIC, 28% net margin, lowest leverage (1.2x), cheap 14.4x P/E, and only ~3.5% off its high; the overhang is the 2028 Keytruda cliff the multiple already reflects.
UNH and ELV are Mixed: both saw net margins compress to ~2.7-2.8% on the care-ratio spike, so their P/Es sit on trough earnings, and both are extended. CVS is Weak (0.4% net margin, 2.4% ROE, 8.6x net leverage) — a leveraged turnaround, not a compounder.
Correction: the proposed '~88% YTD' for CVS was a trailing-12-month figure; real 2026 YTD is ~+20%.
Current leadersUNH · ELV · MRK · CVS · HUM · CNC
+ New leadersCNCCVSnew breakoutCVS at $95.93 (+1.17% day) is only 2.5% below its $98.43 52-week high and well above its 50d ($83) and 200d ($79), confirming the laggard-to-leader healthcare turn as a genuine new-high breakout.HUMMRKnew breakoutMRK at $120.79 is just 3.5% below its 52-wk high of $125.14 and well above its 50DMA ($116.07) and 200DMA ($103.57), a leading-but-cooling pharma name buyable near its pivot as healthcare turns.
Extended
$399.47+19.2% YTD+39.4% 3m-1.2% from 52-wk high
1% below high
Setupflat baseat the $404.15 pivot (+1.2%)~7% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 62/100
Quality · WeakValuation · RichWinner DNA · 33/F
P/E 30xEV/EBITDA 18xEV/S 0.9xRev +2%GM 23%ROIC 8%FCF yield 4.5%net debt 2.3x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading. Up +39% over 3 months vs the XLV healthcare ETF roughly flat.
At a fresh 52-week high.
Valuation. Genuine V-shaped trough recovery: gapped to $282 on the late-Jan reset, now back near $400. But EPS fell ($15.5 to $13.2) and net margin compressed to 2.7%, so the 24.9x P/E sits on trough earnings.
Extended ~22% above the 200-day after the run.
Extended
$415.53+17.7% YTD+45.1% 3m-0.2% from 52-wk high
at 52-wk high
Setupflat baseat the $408.00 pivot (-1.8%)~6% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 49/100
Quality · WeakValuation · FairWinner DNA · 26/F
P/E 16xEV/EBITDA 12xEV/S 0.6xRev +3%GM 18%ROIC 7%FCF yield 3.6%net debt 2.5x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading, strongest near-term. Up +45% over 3 months and +23% in the last month vs the healthcare ETF roughly flat.
Sitting right at its 52-week high.
Valuation. Cheapest payer on earnings at 13.7x P/E, and EPS held flat (~$25.5) while UNH's fell. But it is the most stretched name in the cohort: pinned to the 52-week high and accelerating hardest into it (+23% in a month), so chasing here buys the vertical part of the move.
Near pivot
$120.79+14.4% YTD+5.0% 3m-3.5% from 52-wk high
4% below high
Setupconsolidationat the $123.46 pivot (+2.2%)~13% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 52/100
Quality · MixedValuation · FairWinner DNA · 37/F
P/E 16xEV/EBITDA 12xEV/S 5.2xRev +4%GM 82%ROIC 18%FCF yield 4.1%net debt 1.2x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading but cooling. Up +14% YTD vs the healthcare ETF roughly flat, though the last 3 months added only +5% as it consolidates just below its high.
Valuation. The highest-quality balance sheet and returns in the group (ROIC 18%, lowest leverage at 1.2x) at a cheap 14.4x P/E. The catch is structural, not financial: the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff is the overhang the low multiple already reflects.
Least extended of the four (~3.5% below high), so the most constructive entry.
Extended
$95.93+19.9% YTD+22.5% 3m-2.5% from 52-wk high
2% below high
Setupflat baseat the $98.43 pivot (+2.6%)~9% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 52/100
Quality · WeakValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 34/F
P/E 69xEV/EBITDA 23xEV/S 0.6xRev +6%GM 16%ROIC 5%FCF yield 6.4%net debt 8.6x EBITDA
Relative strength. Leading. Up +20% in the last month, the strongest near-term RS in the cohort, vs the healthcare ETF roughly flat.
Near its 52-week high.
Valuation. Real turnaround in the tape, but the weakest fundamentals here: 0.4% net margin, 2.4% ROE, and 8.6x net-debt/EBITDA leverage. The 56.9x P/E is depressed-earnings optics; the bull case rests on Aetna MBR staying contained and debt coming down.
Healthy 7.8% FCF yield is the offset. Extended after the run.
Extended
$350.08+38.8% YTD+96.1% 3m-0.5% from 52-wk high
0% below high
Setupconsolidationat the $351.88 pivot (+0.5%)~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 54/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 45/D
Mkt cap ~$42.0BGM 11.7%Op margin -3.2%ROIC -2.0%FCF yield 3.0%Rev +10.1% ($113B+ managed-care payer)EPS -1.4%rev accel +0.2ppprice ~45% above 200-day ($245)
Relative strength. LEADING its theme decisively. RS percentile 92 vs the XLV healthcare proxy.
HUM is +96.1% over 3m and printing a fresh 52-week high, while XLV is only ~4.7% off its high and roughly flat-to-up over the same span — a textbook laggard-to-leader turn relative to the sector ETF.
Valuation. The price is a turnaround/re-rating bet, not a fundamentals story: operating margin is still negative (-3.2%) and ROIC -2.0% as MA medical-cost pressure works through, with only +10.1% revenue and a slim 3.0% FCF yield supporting the ~$42B cap. Stock is pricing the recovery ahead of the financials.
Near pivot
$62.33+60.4% YTD+43.9% 3m-1.0% from 52-wk high
1% below high
Setupconsolidationat the $63.50 pivot (+1.9%)~12% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 64/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 48/D
Mkt cap ~$30.8BGM 15.2%Op margin -3.5%ROIC -2.2%FCF yield 20.7%Rev +19.4% ($160B+ Medicaid/exchange payer)EPS -318% (loss period)rev accel +3.6ppprice ~55% above 200-day ($40)
Relative strength. LEADING its theme. RS percentile 86 vs the XLV healthcare proxy.
CNC is +43.9% over 3m and +60.4% over 6m, sitting ~1% off a 52-week high and ~55% above its 200-day ($40), versus XLV which is ~4.7% off its high — a strong laggard-to-leader move that outpaces the sector ETF.
Valuation. Optically cheap on a high 20.7% FCF yield and accelerating +19.4% revenue, but the P&L is in a loss (op margin -3.5%, ROIC -2.2%, EPS swing -318%); the rally is a recovery re-rate off depressed earnings, so the FCF screen flatters a still-impaired margin profile.
Consumer Staples / defensive rotation
What’s driving it. Risk-aversion flow on a rate-driven flush. XLP is above both its 50d and 200d, WMT/COST-led, in the ~+13% YTD region, consistent with the year's cyclical/defensive-over-growth tilt.
Durability. Short-term and tactical. This is the lowest-conviction theme on the board.
The +1.7% day is safe-haven flow, not a multi-month RS breakout (XLP is still -7.4% off its 52-week high), and it would fade fast if the AI-semi complex resumes its uptrend. Treat as a defensive hedge, not durable thematic leadership.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong and stable, which is the point. WMT, COST, PG, KO, PM are durable, low-volatility cash generators with defensive demand.
That stability is exactly why they bid on a risk-off day, but it also caps the upside — these are ballast, not a growth engine.
Current leadersWMT · COST · PG · KO · PM · PSMT
+ New leadersCOSTreturningCOST re-enters as defensive staples rotation bid, but at $971.87 it is 11.4% below its $1096.50 high and below its 50d ($1006) while only just holding its 200d ($957), so it is a defensive re-add, not a fresh-high breakout.KOnew breakoutKO popped +3.46% to $79.48, only 3.8% below its 52-wk high of $82.66 and well above its 50DMA ($77.91) and 200DMA ($73.09), a clean defensive-rotation breakout into new-high territory.PGnew breakoutPG jumped +4.09% to $146.54 and reclaimed its 50DMA ($144.21) but remains 12.4% below its 52-wk high of $167.25 and still under its 200DMA ($149.46), so it is an early defensive-rotation bounce rather than a fully confirmed breakout.PMnew breakoutPM is $178.29 (+1.9% on the day), just 7.6% below its 52-wk high of $193.05 and above both its 50DMA ($170.09) and 200DMA ($165.79), a clean defensive-staple uptrend qualifying as a fresh RS leadership entry.PSMTWMTreturningWMT at $118.88 (+1.0%) is 12.0% off its $135.16 high and below its 50DMA ($126.11) but holding above its 200DMA ($115.28), a defensive-staple leader added on rotation while still working back from a pullback rather than on new highs.
Avoid
$118.88+9.4% YTD-6.3% 3m-12.0% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $125.80~10% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 38/F
Mkt cap ~$946BGM 25.1%Op margin 4.2%ROIC 3.0%FCF yield 1.3%Rev +5.9% ($680B+ retail)EPS +21.8%rev accel +1.7ppbelow 50-day ($126), just above 200-day ($115)
Relative strength. LAGGING its theme. RS percentile 51 (middle of the pack) vs the XLP consumer-staples proxy.
WMT is -8.7% 1m and -6.3% 3m and has broken below its 50-day ($126), while XLP is only ~7.4% off its high and holding above its 50-day — the bellwether is underperforming the defensive rotation it should anchor.
Valuation. Durable defensive compounder with steady +5.9% revenue and +21.8% EPS growth, but the ~$946B cap on a 1.3% FCF yield and 3.0% ROIC is a premium multiple; with price now below the 50-day and 12% off its high, the chart has rolled over even as the staples sector holds up.
Extended
↗ Costco Wholesale
$971.87+8.6% YTD-3.3% 3m-11.4% from 52-wk high
11% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $1,096.50~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 48/D
P/E ~50xEV/EBITDA ~37xRev +9.2%GM 12.8%op margin 4%ROIC ~4.7%FCF yield ~2%net cash, ~$431B cap
Relative strength. LAGGING the staples theme: RS percentile 42 (below median) and 1m -4% / 3m -3.3% both trail proxy XLP, which sits near flat 1m and only -7.4% from its high vs COST's -11.4%. COST is below its 50-DMA ($1,006) while XLP holds above its 200-DMA.
Valuation. Best-in-class membership compounder with durable +9% revenue growth, but at ~50x earnings and a ~2% FCF yield the valuation is rich for a 4% operating-margin retailer; quality is high, the multiple is not.
Too early
$146.54+1.5% YTD-5.6% 3m-12.4% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupflat basebelow the 200-day — trend broken, $148.54 not a valid entry~6% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 46/D
P/E ~22.5xEV/EBITDA 17.4xEV/S 4.9xRev +0.3% ($84.3B FY25)GM 51%op margin 24%ROE 31% / ROIC 16.5%FCF ~$14B (yield ~3.6%)net debt/EBITDA 1.1x
Relative strength. LAGGING: RS percentile 39 (bottom-half) with 3m -5.6% vs proxy XLP roughly flat over the same window; PG is -12.4% from its 52w high versus XLP's -7.4%, and trades below its 200-DMA ($149.5) while XLP is above its 200-DMA.
Valuation. High-quality cash machine (31% ROE, 16.5% ROIC, ~$14B FCF) but FY25 revenue grew only +0.3%, so ~22x earnings prices in growth the top line isn't yet delivering; defensible but not cheap for the growth rate.
Near pivot
↗ The Coca-Cola Company
$79.48+13.6% YTD+2.9% 3m-3.8% from 52-wk high
4% below high
Setupflat base4% below the $82.51 pivot~7% risk to base lowtrend ✓
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 60/C
P/E ~28xGM 60%op margin 15.6%Rev +1.9%EPS +23.1%ROIC ~1.7%FCF yield ~3.7%~$342B cap
Relative strength. LEADING: RS percentile 64 (top third) with positive 1m +1.3% and 3m +2.9% beating proxy XLP (near flat); KO is only -3.8% from its 52w high vs XLP's -7.4% and trades above both its 50- and 200-DMA.
Valuation. Wide-moat franchise with a 60% gross margin and strong +23% EPS growth driving the move; ~28x and a 3.7% FCF yield are full but fair for a high-quality defensive compounding earnings double-digit.
Near pivot
↗ Philip Morris International
$178.29+22.2% YTD+3.8% 3m-7.6% from 52-wk high
8% below high
Setupflat base7% below the $190.49 pivot~11% risk to base lowtrend ✓
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 49/D
P/E ~24xGM 65.6%op margin 32.6%Rev +7.3%EPS +60.8%ROIC ~5.5%FCF yield ~3.8%~$278B cap
Relative strength. LEADING: RS percentile 64 (top third) with the best momentum in the group, +4.2% 1m / +3.8% 3m / +22.2% 6m, well ahead of proxy XLP; PM is -7.6% from its high (roughly in line with XLP) but trades comfortably above its 50- and 200-DMA, confirming the relative uptrend.
Valuation. Best fundamental momentum in the cohort: +7.3% revenue and +60.8% EPS growth on a 32.6% operating margin, led by smoke-free/Zyn mix shift; ~24x with a ~3.8% FCF yield is reasonable for that growth and the defensive profile.
Near pivot
$173.97+42.2% YTD+13.7% 3m-2.0% from 52-wk high
2% below high
Setupconsolidationat the $177.45 pivot (+2.0%)~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 47/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 47/D
EV/S ~1.1x ($5.4B mcap / ~$4.8B rev)Rev +8.8% (~$4.8B)GM 17.7%Op margin 5.1%ROIC 3.3%EPS +4509% (low-base)FCF yield 1.6%clean balance sheet
Relative strength. LEADING its theme proxy XLP decisively. PSMT sits in the 86th RS percentile with +13.7% 3m / +42.2% 6m, while consumer-staples proxy XLP is roughly flat-to-down 3m and trades ~-7% below its own 52w high.
PSMT is the rare staples-adjacent name making new highs.
Valuation. Membership-warehouse retailer with thin 17.7% gross / 5.1% operating margins and modest 3.3% ROIC, so this is a cheap-multiple (~1.1x sales) defensive compounder, not a high-quality name. Steady 8.8% revenue growth and a near-new-high chart justify the rerating, but low FCF yield (1.6%) leaves little valuation cushion.
Financials / banks
What’s driving it. A 'higher-for-longer helps bank NIM' hope, which is forward-looking, not realized relative strength. The one genuine pocket is regional banks: KRE is +6.5% above its 200d and only -5.3% off its high.
Durability. Not durable leadership at the broad level. This is the key narrative correction: three angles called Financials emerging off ONE green session (XLF +0.21%), but measured YTD is NEGATIVE -4.5% and XLF sits below its 200d.
The broad sector is a one-session safe harbor. KRE is the only sub-pocket worth watching for a genuine rate-beneficiary rotation if the higher-rate regime persists.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Adequate but not the issue. The big banks (JPM, GS, WFC, BAC) are well-capitalized and profitable, so health is not the problem — relative strength is.
The fundamentals do not rescue a sector that is a YTD laggard below its 200d. Only KRE shows real RS, and even that is rate-regime-dependent.
Current leadersKRE · JPM · GS · WFC · BAC · C
+ New leadersBACnew breakoutBAC at $53.83 is only 6.5% below its $57.55 52-week high and back above both its 50d ($51.49) and 200d ($51.91), so it enters as banks/financials regain relative leadership, though the breakout is shallow (flat -0.11% day).CKREnew breakoutRegional-bank ETF KRE at $70.17 sits 5.3% below its 52-wk high of $74.08 and above both its 50DMA ($68.38) and 200DMA ($65.88), confirming the banks theme regaining relative strength.WFCreturningWFC at $81.94 (+0.4%) has reclaimed its 50DMA ($79.18) and sits 16.2% below its $97.76 high but is still below its 200DMA ($84.06), a recovering bank regaining a leader slot rather than breaking to new highs.
− Removed leadersOWLbroken downtrendOWL at $9.80 is 53.5% below its 52-wk high ($21.08) and deeply under its 200DMA ($13.64), a confirmed broken downtrend that was already flagged broken-avoid and continued lower today (-3.8%).SOFIrs fadedSOFI slid -6.5% to $16.03, now 51% below its $32.73 52-wk high and under both its 50-day ($16.75) and 200-day ($23.12), confirming the prior lagging read against XLF.
Basing
↗ SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$70.17+7.5% YTD+8.0% 3m-5.3% from 52-wk high
5% below high
Fundamentals · Mixed
Equal-weight regional-bank ETF~140 holdings~0.35% expense ratiosector P/E low-teensplays NIM expansion + steeper curve + M&A re-ratingrate-sensitive, deposit-beta exposed
Relative strength. LEADING the broad financials proxy XLF: regional-bank KRE is +8.0% 3m / +7.5% YTD versus XLF at +3.4% 3m / -4.8% YTD, and KRE sits only -5.3% below its 52w high while XLF is ~-7% below its own. Regional banks are the relative-strength leaders within the banks theme.
Valuation. Diversified regional-bank basket trades at the group's low-teens P/E and below tangible-book-stress levels, a cheap but cyclically rate- and credit-sensitive vehicle. The +8% 3m recovery off the March lows and reclaim of the 50/200-day averages signals improving group health, though it remains -5% under the highs as a basing, not breakout, setup.
Basing
↗ JPMorgan Chase &
$312.37+0.5% YTD+7.9% 3m-7.4% from 52-wk high
7% below high
Setupflat baseat the $316.30 pivot (+1.3%)~7% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 45/D
P/E ~14-15x (~$837B mcap)Rev +3.5% (~$180B)GM 59.1%Op margin 24.7%ROE ~17-18% (panel ROIC 1% asset-base)EPS +1.4%FCF yield 16.2%fortress balance sheet / strong CET1
Relative strength. Roughly IN-LINE/modestly LEADING its theme proxy XLF: 63rd RS percentile, +7.9% 3m beats XLF's +3.4% 3m, but its +0.5% 6m roughly matches XLF and it trades -7.4% below its 52w high. A steady mega-cap money-center anchor rather than the group's RS leader.
Valuation. Best-in-class money-center bank at ~14-15x earnings with a fortress balance sheet, 24.7% operating margin and mid-teens ROE, so quality is clearly Strong even as revenue (+3.5%) and EPS (+1.4%) growth have flattened. Reasonably valued for the group; the stall is normalization off peak NII, not deterioration.
Extended
$1,038.68+24.6% YTD+24.8% 3m-5.4% from 52-wk high
5% below high
Setupconsolidation6% below the $1,098.36 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 47/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 36/F
P/E ~16-17x (~$306B mcap)Rev -1.8%GM 51.7%Op margin 19.4%EPS +26.6%ROIC 0.5% (asset-base) / ROE ~13-14%FCF yield -12.7% (financing/markets-driven)well-capitalized
Relative strength. LEADING the financials theme strongly: 86th RS percentile, +24.8% 3m / +24.6% 6m versus XLF's +3.4% 3m / -4.8% YTD. GS is the clear banks-theme leader on the capital-markets/IB recovery, though it gapped down ~5% on the as-of day off its fresh 52w high.
Valuation. Capital-markets leverage is paying off, with EPS +26.6% despite roughly flat revenue (-1.8%) as IB and trading rebound, at a ~16-17x multiple that is full but not extreme for the cycle. The negative FCF yield is normal for a markets-facing dealer; the bigger risk is the chart, up ~25% in 3m and a -5% gap from new highs makes fresh entries an extended chase.
Basing
$81.94-8.7% YTD+4.0% 3m-16.2% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupconsolidationbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $83.16 not a valid entry~12% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 26/F
P/E ~12.8xP/B 1.64xP/S 2.4xRev -1.5% ($123.5B)Net margin 17%ROE 11.8%ROA ~1.0%EPS $6.39 (+18%)Div yield ~2.2%well-capitalized bank
Relative strength. IN-LINE/slightly LAGGING XLF. RS percentile 54 sits mid-pack; XLF is ~7% below its 52w high while WFC is ~16% below, so WFC trails the group on relative recovery.
Its +4% 3m roughly matches the flattish XLF tape but the deeper drawdown marks it as a laggard within banks (vs BAC 66, C 84).
Valuation. Trades at ~12.8x earnings and 1.64x book — a reasonable valuation for an 11.8% ROE bank with improving EPS (+18% YoY) and a ~2.2% dividend; revenue is flat but profitability and capital return are healthy, leaving valuation fair rather than cheap.
Near pivot
↗ Bank of America
$53.83+0.5% YTD+12.4% 3m-6.5% from 52-wk high
6% below high
Setupflat baseat the $54.20 pivot (+0.7%)~9% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 47/D
FCF yield 13.9%GM 60%Op margin 25%Rev -0.5%EPS +18.6%rev accel +7.1ROIC 0.8% (bank-leverage optics)improving NII trend
Relative strength. LEADING XLF. RS percentile 66 is above the bank cohort; BAC's +12.4% 3m far outpaces the roughly flat XLF over the same window, and at just -6.5% from its 52w high it is closer to highs than the ETF (~-7%).
Valuation. Money-center bank showing reaccelerating revenue (+7.1 accel) and 18.6% EPS growth with a 25% operating margin; the low headline ROIC reflects balance-sheet leverage accounting rather than weak economics, and the franchise looks healthy and reasonably valued near book-plus.
Extended
$132.47+23.5% YTD+24.3% 3m-2.5% from 52-wk high
2% below high
Setupflat baseat the $131.95 pivot (-0.4%)~9% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 61/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 42/F
Op margin 9.3%GM 43%Rev -1.4%EPS +17.1%FCF yield -15.1% (capital-intensive restructuring)ROIC 0.2%turnaround/buyback story
Relative strength. LEADING XLF decisively. RS percentile 84 is the strongest of the bank cohort; C's +24.3% 3m and +23.5% 6m crush the roughly flat XLF, and at only -2.5% from its 52w high it is essentially at new highs while the ETF sits ~7% below.
Valuation. The restructuring/buyback turnaround is delivering 17% EPS growth and the stock is the bank-group leader, but thin operating margins (9.3%), negative FCF yield and near-zero ROIC keep returns sub-par; price near 52w highs after a +24% 3m run leaves it extended relative to still-modest fundamentals.
AI power generation / IPPs / uranium & nuclear
What’s driving it. A real long-run thesis (hyperscaler nuclear PPAs, contract uranium ~$90, highest since 2008) that the EQUITIES have already priced years ahead. Trust the price: URA at 45.31 is below both its 50d and 200d, -27% off its high.
Durability. The thesis is durable; the equity trade is not, right now. NLR broke below both its 50d AND 200d.
SMR is -12.5% at less than half its 200d with a fraud-lawsuit overhang and Goldman/Citi downgrades. The IPP leaders rolled over too (VST and CEG both below their 200d).
This is included specifically as the trade most likely to be mistaken for emerging when it is fading.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Mixed and varied. The utility-scale IPPs (CEG, VST) and Cameco (CCJ) are real operating businesses, but the equities are priced far ahead of near-term cash flows, which is why they de-rated decisively below trend.
The speculative SMR/NuScale tier carries genuine fundamental and legal risk. Strong long-run demand story, poor current entry.
Current leadersCCJ · CEG · VST · GEV
+ New leadersCEGreturningCEG re-enters on the nuclear/IPP power theme but the tape is weak, not strong: at $254.83 it is 38.3% below its $412.70 52-week high and below both its 50d ($291) and 200d ($322), so this is a theme-driven re-add of a still-broken name rather than a strength breakout.VSTreturningVST is a longtime IPP/nuclear-power leader being re-added on theme re-surfacing, but the live tape is weak ($148.76, -3.2% on the day, 32.3% below its $219.82 high and below both its 50DMA $154.41 and 200DMA $172.55), so this is theme-driven re-inclusion not a confirmed breakout.
− Removed leadersBWXTbroken downtrendBWXT is genuinely broken: $185.95 (-2.5% on the day), 23.1% below its $241.82 high and below BOTH its 50DMA ($212.16) and 200DMA ($195.11), confirming the prior broken-avoid read.TLNrs fadedTLN lost its prior leadership posture, falling -3.5% to $364.74 and dropping below its 200-day ($372) — it now holds only the 50-day ($353), versus prior status as the only IPP above both, and is 19% below its $451 high.
Too early
↗ Cameco
$103.44+9.9% YTD-10.9% 3m-23.5% from 52-wk high
24% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $122.30~16% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 60/C
GM 22%Op margin 13.6%Rev +11%rev accel +16.1EPS +246%ROIC 1.4%FCF yield 2.0%cyclical commodity producer
Relative strength. LEADING NLR despite the selloff. RS percentile 68 is above the theme; CCJ's +9.9% 6m beats the uranium/nuclear proxy which is ~27% below its 52w high and down ~7% on the day, vs CCJ at -23.5% from high — CCJ has held up relatively better than the broad NLR basket through the pullback.
Valuation. Operationally inflecting — +11% revenue, accelerating, with a 246% EPS surge off a low base and 13.6% operating margin — but ROIC is still only 1.4% and the stock just broke ~13% in a session and sits 23.5% off its high; the fundamentals are improving yet the chart is mid-correction without confirmation.
Avoid
$254.83-30.8% YTD-21.1% 3m-38.2% from 52-wk high
38% below high
Setupconsolidationbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $290.90 not a valid entry~13% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 65/C
P/E 34xEV/EBITDA ~23xEV/S 4.5xRev +8% ($25.5B)GM ~76% (2025 cost reclass; net margin 9%)ROE 16%ROIC ~4%net debt/EBITDA ~1.0xFCF yield ~1.2%
Relative strength. LAGGING the nuclear/uranium theme. RS percentile 17 (bottom-fifth of the universe) and the proxy VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF (NLR) is itself down with price $122.11 vs its 200-day $137.25; CEG's -21.1% 3m / -30.8% 6m is worse than the group, the deepest decliner of the IPP/nuclear names here.
Valuation. Premium multiple (34x earnings, 23x EBITDA) for a regulated/merchant nuclear IPP whose EPS actually fell YoY (FY24 $11.90 to FY25 $7.40) and whose FCF yield is barely 1%. The AI-power growth narrative is priced in while the stock breaks down, leaving valuation stretched against current cash generation.
Avoid
$148.76-15.3% YTD-9% 3m-32.3% from 52-wk high
32% below high
Setupconsolidationbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $167.40 not a valid entry~14% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StretchedWinner DNA · 41/F
P/E ~67xEV/EBITDA ~14xEV/S 4.4xRev -12% ($17.0B)GM ~18%ROE 18%ROIC ~3%net debt/EBITDA ~3.7x (levered)FCF yield ~0.2%
Relative strength. LAGGING the nuclear/IPP theme but holding up far better than CEG. RS percentile 29; vs the NLR proxy (price $122.11 below its 200-day $137.25), VST's -9% 3m / -15.3% 6m is the shallowest drawdown of the two power names, but still below-median relative strength.
Valuation. EPS collapsed to $2.21 (from $7.16) on lower revenue and heavy D&A/interest, pushing P/E to ~67x and FCF yield to near zero while net debt sits at ~3.7x EBITDA. Reasonable EV/EBITDA (14x) masks a thin-equity, highly-levered merchant generator whose earnings power is currently compressed.
Extended
$933.61+37.5% YTD+18.3% 3m-21.0% from 52-wk high
21% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $992.00~7% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 60/C
P/E 53xEV/EBITDA 67xEV/S 6.4xRev +16%GM 19%ROIC 6%FCF yield 1.4%net cash
Relative strength. Lagging near-term despite a strong YTD. It is the only name of the five trading BELOW its 50d SMA ($1006, -7.3%) and is down 17% over the month — its small -3.1% today masks a 1-month leadership breakdown, not lower-beta strength.
Valuation. A power-gen conglomerate (gas turbines, grid) where data-center electrical is a minority of a low-margin $38B base — the pure DC-electrical framing overstates torque. Correcting hard from a parabolic run; 50d break is the tell.
Gold & precious metals
What’s driving it. A reversal of the safe-haven bid. Robust May jobs revived Fed-hike bets, GLD fell to 396.24 (below both its 50d and 200d, -22% off its high), and the metal fell alongside stocks rather than catching a flight-to-safety bid.
Durability. Genuinely broken near-term. The miners de-rated ~2-3x the metal (GDX -8.75%, WPM -9.5%) — leverage in reverse.
Inverse-miner ETFs led the entire gainers list (GDXD +27%, JDST +20%, DUST +17.3%), which is leveraged confirmation of a real complex breakdown, not noise. Silver's parabolic blow-off (>$120 January ATH) is correcting hard alongside.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Not the question — this is a trend break, not a fundamentals call. The miners (NEM, AEM, WPM, FNV) are leveraged to a metal price that just reversed.
Royalty names (WPM, FNV) carry the cleaner business models, but in a falling-gold, rising-rate regime the whole complex is the wrong place to be regardless of company quality.
Current leadersNEM · AEM · WPM · FNV
Avoid
$99.71+10.1% YTD-14.8% 3m-26.1% from 52-wk high
26% below high
Setupflat basebelow the 200-day — trend broken, $111.93 not a valid entry~11% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 84/A
P/E ~16xEV/EBITDA ~8xEV/S 4.9xRev +19% ($22.1B)GM 50%ROE 21%ROIC 12%net cash (net debt/EBITDA ~-0.1x)FCF yield ~7%
Relative strength. LEADING the gold-miner theme. RS percentile 71 (top-third) and the strongest 6m return of the precious-metals names here at +10.1% vs the GDX proxy (price $78.84, below its 50-day $91.26 in today's selloff); NEM held a positive 6m while AEM was -4.4%, so it is the relative leader despite the sharp recent pullback.
Valuation. Cheapest of the group at ~16x earnings / 8x EBITDA with a ~7% FCF yield, net-cash balance sheet, and EPS that more than doubled (FY24 $2.86 to FY25 $6.41) on the gold-price tailwind. High-quality, well-capitalized leader trading at a reasonable multiple; the leader of its theme despite a >25% pullback from the high.
Avoid
$163.66-4.4% YTD-27.2% 3m-35.9% from 52-wk high
36% below high
Setupflat basebelow the 200-day — trend broken, $185.00 not a valid entry~12% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 87/A
P/E ~18xEV/EBITDA ~10xEV/S 6.9xRev +44% ($11.9B)GM 58%ROE 18%ROIC 13%net cash (net debt/EBITDA ~-0.3x)FCF yield ~5%
Relative strength. LAGGING within the gold-miner theme. RS percentile 35 (below median) and the weakest medium-term trend of the precious-metals names with -27.2% 3m and -4.4% 6m, underperforming NEM (+10.1% 6m); relative to the GDX proxy ($78.84, below its 50/200-day) AEM has given back more of its run.
Valuation. Highest-quality operator in the group — 58% gross margin, ROIC 13%, essentially debt-free, with revenue +44% and EPS up to $8.89 (from $3.79) — but it carries the richest sales multiple (~7x EV/S vs NEM's ~5x) and is in a sharper price downtrend, so the premium valuation pairs with a broken near-term chart.
Avoid
$116.23+5.7% YTD-24.5% 3m-29.9% from 52-wk high
30% below high
Setupcontractionbelow the 200-day — trend broken, $133.87 not a valid entry~14% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 85/A
P/E ~35xEV/EBITDA 27xEV/S 22xRev +83% ($2.36B FY25)GM 72%net margin 64%ROE 17% / ROIC 16%FCF yield ~1.1%net cash (netDebt/EBITDA -0.6x, current ratio 7.8x, ~zero debt)
Relative strength. LAGGING the theme proxy GDX (VanEck Gold Miners). RS percentile 37 (bottom third); WPM 3m -24.5% is roughly inline-to-worse than GDX's ~-24% 3m, and its 1m -11.7% underperformed on the latest leg down.
A middling-to-weak relative name within a sharply correcting gold complex.
Valuation. Premium streaming-model multiples (P/E ~35x, EV/S 22x) look rich on the surface but normalize fast against +83% revenue growth (PEG ~0.20) and 80%+ EBITDA margins on a fortress, near-zero-debt balance sheet. Quality is unquestioned; the de-rate is gold-price/sentiment driven, not fundamental.
Too early
$218.74+8.0% YTD-15.7% 3m-23.4% from 52-wk high
23% below high
Setupflat basebelow the 200-day — trend broken, $231.93 not a valid entry~6% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 87/A
P/E ~37xEV/EBITDA 23xEV/S 22xRev +64% ($1.82B FY25)GM 74%net margin 61%ROE 15% / ROIC 13%FCF yield ~3.7%net cash (netDebt/EBITDA -0.2x, current ratio 8.3x, ~zero debt)
Relative strength. Modestly LEADING the theme proxy GDX (VanEck Gold Miners). RS percentile 50 (median); FNV 3m -15.7% held up materially better than GDX's ~-24% 3m, and its 1m -4.1% drawdown was far shallower — the more resilient royalty name in the correction, though RS is only middling.
Valuation. Pure royalty model with minimal capex drives a ~3.7% FCF yield (vs WPM ~1.1%) and 95% EBITDA margin; P/E ~37x is offset by +64% revenue growth (PEG ~0.34) and a debt-free, cash-rich balance sheet. High-quality compounder; the pullback is sentiment, but price still sits just under its 200-DMA with no reclaim yet.
Biotech laggard-to-leader (small/mid-cap)
carried forward
What’s driving it. An early-cycle laggard group turning, helped by AI-discovery demand and clinical catalysts. XBI is in a strong uptrend (+9.4% YTD).
June 4 was a broad biotech up-day (XBI +2.8%), so single-name strength reflects beta as much as idiosyncratic leadership.
Durability. Short-to-medium term and selective. This is the earliest, highest-beta slice of the healthcare turn.
SDGR is the genuine laggard-to-leader (+22.9% 1m / +20.7% 3m off a -43%-from-high base, reclaiming its 200-day). CRSP is a real but unconfirmed turn.
The move is only weeks old and the two RS leaders are clinical-binary, so leadership can fail at the 200-day. Durable only if the broader healthcare turn holds.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Weak where it leads, strong where it lags. The two RS leaders carry the theme but are fundamentally Weak: SDGR is pre-profit (negative operating margin, ROIC ~-30%, one lumpy year of positive FCF), and CRSP is clinical-binary (FY25 revenue collapsed to ~$3.5M, -$582M net loss, funded by a ~$2.44B cash pile after a $600M convert).
VRTX is the only Strong name (~$3.2B FCF, 18% ROIC, net cash) but its RS is weakest and it is mis-sized as a $112B large-cap for a small/mid theme. In aggregate, the entry call rests on the tape, not the income statement — size accordingly.
Current leadersVRTX
− Removed leadersCRSPrs fadedCRSP at $51.84 fell -9.0% today back to its 50DMA ($51.84) and below its 200DMA ($55.63), now 34% below the 52-wk high of $78.48 — the near-pivot setup rolled over and relative strength faded.SDGRbroken downtrendSDGR's laggard-to-leader turn reversed, falling -9.3% to $14.38, now 48% below its $27.63 52-wk high and well under its 200-day ($16.05), breaking the prior near-pivot setup.
Basing
$446.83-1.5% YTD-2.1% 3m-12.0% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupflat baseat the $456.68 pivot (+2.2%)~8% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · MixedValuation · RichWinner DNA · 48/D
P/E 28xEV/EBITDA 22xEV/S 8.9xRev +8%GM 87%ROIC 18%FCF yield 2.9%net cash
Relative strength. LAGGING vs theme proxy XBI on YTD (-1.5% vs XBI +5.5%) and 3m (-2.1% vs +3.7%), but recovering and LEADING 1m (+4.5% vs XBI -6.5%). Structurally the firmest of the trio: above both 50d ($437.24) and 200d ($436.63) SMAs, +1.2% green on the 2026-06-05 risk-off day.
Valuation. Best fundamentals in the cohort and the only profitable, cash-generative anchor, but the multiple is full. At EV/S ~9.5x and EV/FCF ~36x the price already discounts durable CF cash flows plus successful Journavx/Casgevy ramps.
Small-cap / equal-weight broadening
carried forward
What’s driving it. Genuine breadth, not a reflex. IWM is +11.6% over 3 months and closed effectively at a fresh high, +14.6% above its 200-day.
RSP equal-weight is also at a 52-week high. Unlike financials, the multi-week RS confirms the June 4 Russell-vs-flat-Nasdaq divergence is durable broadening.
Durability. Real but mid-stage — the easy early money is gone. This broke its base back in January and has been running since, so it is not a fresh breakout.
It is the best fresh non-tech add but a quality-screened proxy (CALF) is more durable than raw IWM at highs, since roughly 40% of the Russell is unprofitable.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Index-level, so judge it as a basket. The headline risk is composition: about 40% of the Russell 2000 is unprofitable, so raw IWM carries a large tail of low-quality, rate-sensitive names.
A free-cash-flow or quality screen (CALF) gives much healthier aggregate fundamentals than the raw index. Equal-weight RSP is structurally higher-quality than IWM.
Prefer the screened proxies.
Current leadersIJR · IWM · RSP
Near pivot
$137.68+14.6% YTD+10.3% 3m-2.0% from 52-wk high
2% below high
Quality · Weak
ROIC 0%FCF yield 0.0%net cash
Relative strength. IJR is itself a theme proxy; vs peer broadening proxy IWM it is marginally LEADING YTD (+14.6% vs IWM +14.4%) and held up better on 2026-06-05 (-1.8% vs IWM -3.5%). Above 50d ($133.54) and 200d ($124.99) SMAs, near 52w high.
Valuation. The S&P 600's earnings-positive entry screen gives IJR a higher-quality, cheaper-on-earnings small-cap basket than IWM; after a strong YTD it is digesting gains in a tight range just below the high — constructive basing that keeps the broadening thesis intact without chasing.
Near pivot
$281.65+14.4% YTD+12.3% 3m-3.8% from 52-wk high
4% below high
Quality · Weak
ROIC 0%FCF yield 0.0%net cash
Relative strength. IWM is itself a theme proxy; vs peer broadening proxy IJR it is marginally LAGGING YTD (+14.4% vs IJR +14.6%) and 1m (-1.8% vs IJR -0.9%), and took a sharper -3.5% reversal on 2026-06-05 from near its 52w high. Still above 50d ($272.66) and 200d ($254.85) SMAs in an intact uptrend.
Valuation. As a broad small-cap index fund there is no firm-level valuation; the read is index posture — small-caps have re-rated hard off depressed multiples, and at a fresh 52-week high after a +18.6% YTD run the basket is extended near-term even as the structural broadening thesis stays intact.
Near pivot
$207.83+8.5% YTD+4.9% 3m-1.2% from 52-wk high
1% below high
Quality · Weak
ROIC 0%FCF yield 0.0%net cash
Relative strength. RSP is itself the equal-weight broadening proxy; benchmarked vs SPY (cap-weighted): LEADING short-term, MIXED longer. RSP 1m +2.1% vs SPY +0.8%; 3m +4.9% vs SPY +9.7% (lags); YTD +8.5% vs SPY +8.2% (~matches).
Equal-weight outperformance on 1m signals breadth improving recently; still trailing cap-weight on 3m.
Valuation. Equal-weighting tilts the basket toward cheaper mid-cap/value names that trade at a discount to the mega-cap-heavy SPX, so the fund itself screens cheaper than the cap-weighted index; just breaking to a new high on accelerating relative strength makes it a constructive add near the pivot rather than a chase.
Quantum Computing
carried forward
What’s driving it. No fundamental driver — this is pure narrative and positioning. IONQ is -3.8% and 22% off its year high; RGTI is below its 200-day and 58% off its high.
Both fell or stalled while non-AI cyclicals rallied on June 4 — the behavior of a crowded cohort that gets de-grossed when risk appetite narrows.
Durability. Fading. Downgraded from extended to fading because it sold off into a risk-on tape, which is the worst tell.
Pre-revenue and headline-driven. Not a leadership group — a speculative cohort to avoid until it stops underperforming on up days.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Weak and pre-revenue. IONQ carries a ~$24.5B market cap on minimal sales.
These are pre-commercial, cash-burning companies whose valuations rest entirely on a distant technology narrative, not on margins, growth or balance-sheet strength in any conventional sense. Treat as venture-stage equity in public clothing.
Current leadersIBM · IONQ · QBTS
− Removed leadersRGTIbroken downtrendRGTI fell -14.4% to $20.68, 64% below its $58.15 52-wk high and decisively under its 200-day ($23.43), validating the prior 'broken-avoid' read.
Near pivot
$284.84-3.84% YTD+10.98% 3m-14.32% from 52-wk high
14% below high
Setupcontraction17% below the $332.46 pivot~16% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 15/100
Quality · MixedValuation · FairWinner DNA · 38/F
P/E 27xEV/EBITDA 20xEV/S 5.1xRev +9%GM 56%ROIC 9%FCF yield 4.0%net debt 3.1x EBITDA
Relative strength. MIXED vs QTUM (proxy): LEADING 1m (+24.35% vs QTUM +9.76% = +14.6pp) but LAGGING 3m (+10.98% vs +36.62% = -25.6pp) and YTD (-3.84% vs +39.28% = -43.1pp). Lowest-beta quantum name; held up best on the YTD drawdown.
Valuation. At ~26x earnings and ~19x EV/EBITDA IBM is fully valued for a high-single-digit grower; the cash generation (~$12.4B FCF), 60% gross margin and 32% ROE are strong, but a levered balance sheet (3.1x net debt/EBITDA, sub-1.0 current ratio) and reliance on consulting/software rather than quantum economics make it a quality-but-not-cheap name with no near-term quantum earnings driver.
Extended
$56.78+26.52% YTD+57.59% 3m-32.92% from 52-wk high
33% below high
Setupdeep pullback30% below the $73.65 pivot~24% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 15/100
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 50/D
EV/S 180.3xRev +755%GM 24%ROIC -9%FCF yield -1.2%net debt 2.1x EBITDA
Relative strength. LEADING vs QTUM (proxy) on momentum: 1m +18.22% vs QTUM +9.76% (+8.5pp), 3m +57.59% vs +36.62% (+21.0pp); only YTD lags (+26.52% vs +39.28% = -12.8pp). Strongest pure-play quantum leader, but sat -13.5% on the as-of session.
Valuation. Best top-line growth and balance sheet among the trapped-ion/quantum pure-plays (rev tripled, ~$1B war chest), but deeply unprofitable with a triple-digit EV/sales multiple that prices years of execution. A momentum vehicle, not a value or quality name.
Basing
$23.85-8.80% YTD+26.66% 3m-48.98% from 52-wk high
49% below high
Setupdeep pullback31% below the $31.30 pivot~26% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 92/100
Quality · WeakValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 23/F
EV/S 382.0xRev -81%GM 64%ROIC -11%FCF yield -0.8%net debt 1.7x EBITDA
Relative strength. LAGGING vs QTUM (proxy): roughly inline 1m (+10.83% vs +9.76% = +1.1pp) but trails 3m (+26.66% vs +36.62% = -10.0pp) and YTD (-8.80% vs +39.28% = -48.1pp). Sitting right at its 200d SMA (~$23.37) after a -13.7% down day.
Valuation. Best revenue growth (+179%) and gross margin (83%) among the quantum trio with a well-funded balance sheet, but still deeply loss-making at ~300x+ sales. Chart has round-tripped to flat YTD and sits 41% below its high while bouncing above its moving averages — recovering but not yet confirmed.
AI memory / HBM super-cycle
carried forward
What’s driving it. A genuine DRAM/HBM shortage drove memory names up 140-300% this year — but the crowded leg violently unwound Friday. Micron fell -13.3% to $864.01, now -20.7% off its 52-week high ($1,089.29), as higher-for-longer rate fears flushed the most-extended AI-momentum trade.
The shortage thesis is intact; the positioning got cleared.
Durability. Short-to-medium term. Memory is historically boom-bust cyclical.
The 140-300% moves carry late-cycle risk if DRAM pricing rolls over. This is the highest-conviction CURRENT-momentum theme, but it is established-leading, not emerging — the easy money is behind it.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong YTD fundamentals but deeply cyclical, and the names just led a violent drawdown. Micron's revenue is inflecting hard on pricing, margins are expanding off the trough.
Balance sheets are adequate. The whole group is geared to one variable — DRAM spot pricing — so fundamental health is only as durable as the shortage.
Current leadersLRCX · MU · SNDK · TER · AEHR · KLIC · RMBS
+ New leadersAEHRKLICRMBS
Extended
$303.28+77.3% YTD+41.4% 3m-12.4% from 52-wk high
12% below high
Setupcontraction14% below the $346.19 pivot~13% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 69/C
P/E 80xEV/EBITDA 67xEV/S 23.0xRev +24%GM 50%ROIC 34%FCF yield 1.3%net cash
Relative strength. MIXED vs SMH: LEADING YTD +77.3% vs +58.2% and 1m +10.0% vs +8.9%; slightly LAGGING 3m +41.4% vs +44.1%
Valuation. Best-in-class WFE franchise: ~49% gross margin, 54% ROE, net cash and ~$4.9B FCF on +24% revenue growth. But at ~83x earnings and ~67x EV/EBITDA the stock has fully repriced the HBM/3D-NAND super-cycle into the multiple, leaving little margin for any capex air-pocket.
Extended
$864.01+202.7% YTD+133.3% 3m-20.7% from 52-wk high
21% below high
Setupdeep pullback26% below the $1,089.29 pivot~21% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 80/A
P/E 143xEV/EBITDA 69xEV/S 33.9xRev +196%GM 74%ROIC 12%FCF yield 0.1%net debt 0.3x EBITDA
Relative strength. LEADING SMH (VanEck Semiconductor proxy) decisively: MU +202.7% YTD vs SMH +58.2% YTD; +133.3% 3m vs SMH +49.7%; +29.6% 1m vs SMH +3.6%. Clear theme leader on every window.
Valuation. Operationally inflecting hard (gross margin 40% and net income up ~11x YoY in FY25 on HBM), but the ~9x price re-rate since fiscal year-end pushes trailing P/E to ~140x and current EV/sales to ~33x. The thesis is entirely forward HBM earnings power; trailing multiples are stretched and FCF is still thin against heavy capex.
Extended
$1559.32+557.1% YTD+175.7% 3m-16.2% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupdeep pullback19% below the $1,861.00 pivot~19% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 77/B
EV/S 39.9xRev +251%GM 78%ROIC -12%FCF yield -0.0%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING vs SMH on all horizons: YTD +557.1% vs +58.2%; 3m +175.7% vs +44.1%; 1m +10.9% vs +8.9%
Valuation. Trailing fundamentals are unprofitable (FY25 net loss -$1.64B, negative EBITDA/ROE/ROIC), so the ~40x re-rate of market cap is a pure forward-cycle bet on NAND pricing recovery. Balance sheet is sound (net cash, 3.6x current ratio), but at +672% YTD with no current earnings the stock is priced for a flawless memory up-cycle.
Basing
$357.93+84.9% YTD+31.2% 3m-15.2% from 52-wk high
15% below high
Setupcontraction18% below the $420.60 pivot~16% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · StrongValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 81/A
P/E 116xEV/EBITDA 84xEV/S 20.1xRev +87%GM 61%ROIC 18%FCF yield 0.7%net debt 0.1x EBITDA
Relative strength. MIXED vs SMH: LEADING on YTD (+84.9% vs SMH +58.2%) but LAGGING recently (3m +31.2% vs SMH +49.7%; 1m -6.5% vs SMH +3.6%). Sitting right on its 50-day MA ($354.15) after a -12% day; net YTD leader but momentum cooling.
Valuation. High-quality, asset-light tester: 59% gross margin, low-20s ROE, near-zero net debt. But only ~13% revenue growth and a high-60s/low-80s EV/EBITDA at ~118x earnings make the valuation the most stretched of the four relative to its growth, pricing in a sharp HBM-test acceleration that has yet to show up in the top line.
Extended
$98.45+286.1% YTD+140.8% 3m-19.2% from 52-wk high
19% below high
Setupdeep pullback24% below the $121.80 pivot~20% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 40/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 8/F
P/S rich (~$3.1B cap on contracting sales)GM 33%op margin -41%ROIC -2.3%Rev -26.4%EPS growth -148.6%FCF yield -0.4% (~-$12M, cash-burning)loss-making, revenue still contracting
Relative strength. Strongly LEADING the theme proxy SMH (VanEck Semiconductor). RS percentile 98 (top 2%); AEHR 3m +140.8% and 6m +286.1% dwarf SMH's ~+45% 3m — one of the most extreme momentum names in the HBM/test-and-burn-in complex.
Valuation. RS-98 parabola (+141% 3m, +286% 6m, price ~2.4x its 200-DMA) is a pure AI/HBM burn-in narrative trade wholly detached from the fundamentals — revenue contracting -26%, -41% operating margin, negative FCF and ROIC. Story-driven momentum, not earnings; today's -16% gap underscores the fragility.
Extended
$98.16+107.9% YTD+50.5% 3m-11.4% from 52-wk high
11% below high
Setupcontraction13% below the $110.78 pivot~12% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 60/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 76/B
GM 49%op margin 10%ROIC 1.6%Rev -1.9% (rev_accel +22pp, inflecting)EPS growth -1110% (off a depressed base)FCF yield 0.1% (~+$5M, barely positive)~$5.1B cap
Relative strength. LEADING the theme proxy SMH (VanEck Semiconductor). RS percentile 94 (top decile); KLIC 3m +50.5% beat SMH's ~+45%, and 6m +107.9% is roughly double the ETF — a genuine relative leader in the HBM/advanced-packaging bonding-equipment niche.
Valuation. Leveraged to the HBM/advanced-packaging capex cycle, with revenue re-accelerating (+22pp accel) off a trough and margins recovering toward ~10% operating — but ROIC ~1.6% and near-zero FCF make the +50% 3m run an early-cycle bet on the inflection sticking. Extended above its 50/200-DMAs; better fundamentals than AEHR but the move still front-runs the earnings recovery.
Extended
$145.31+47.1% YTD+64.2% 3m-16.5% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupdeep pullback20% below the $174.10 pivot~18% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 17/100
Fundamentals · StrongWinner DNA · 49/D
P/E ~30xEV/EBITDA ~24xEV/S ~12xRev +27%GM 79%Op margin 37%ROIC ~4%FCF yield ~2%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING the AI-memory/semi theme. RS percentile 93 vs proxy SMH (VanEck Semis); RMBS +64% 3m and trades 41% above its 200-DMA ($103) vs SMH -11% from its own 52w high.
Caveat: SMH sold off -9.2% today and RMBS -14% — the leader is leading the drawdown too.
Valuation. High-margin memory-interface/IP licensing model (79% GM, 37% op margin, net cash) with accelerating HBM/DDR5 demand justifies a premium, but ~12x EV/S and ~30x P/E after a +64% 3-month run leave little margin for error — the -14% session gap is the market repricing that stretch.
Selective medtech / device breakouts
carried forward
What’s driving it. Stock-specific structural growth catalysts. Edwards is just below its 52-week high after a clean six-month base breakout, with Q1-2026 heart-therapy growth ~+42% YoY and raised FY guidance.
Glaukos is reclaiming its 200-day from below. The selectivity is the signal: ISRG is explicitly excluded as a falling knife at its 52-week low.
Durability. Short-term and fragile because it rests on 2-3 names. The broad device proxy IHI is the single weakest in the RS set (-25% off its high), so there is no sector tailwind underneath.
This is a stock-picker's theme, not a own-the-group theme.
Leaders’ fundamental health. The named breakouts (EW, BSX) are healthy — profitable, growing, reasonable balance sheets — but the proxy weakness signals the average device name is struggling. Lowest conviction in the set for exactly this reason: the health is concentrated in a handful of names, not the group.
Current leadersEW · GKOS · AXGN · AVNS · BWAY · BFLY · IART
+ New leadersAVNSAXGNBFLYBWAYIART
− Removed leadersMDTrs fadedAt $81.67 MDT sits right on its 50DMA ($81.53) but a full 23.2% below its 52-wk high ($106.33) and below its 200DMA ($92.55), confirming the device theme never gained leadership and its mild lead over IHI is leadership-in-name-only.
Near pivot
$85.96+0.8% YTD+2.4% 3m-3.9% from 52-wk high
4% below high
Setupshallow pullback4% below the $89.14 pivot~5% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 67/C
P/E 46xEV/EBITDA 33xEV/S 7.8xRev +17%GM 78%ROIC 11%FCF yield 2.7%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING vs IHI on all horizons: YTD +0.8% vs -19.4%; 3m +2.4% vs -13.5%; 1m +3.7% vs +0.5%
Valuation. Premium structural-heart franchise valuation (P/E 46x, EV/EBITDA 33x) reflecting 78% gross margins, 11.5% revenue growth, ~$1.34B FCF and a net-cash balance sheet. The trailing P/E is flattered by FY24's discontinued-ops gain (Critical Care sale); on continuing EPS of $1.84 the multiple is rich but supported by durable TAVR/TMTT growth — a high-quality compounder priced for it.
Near pivot
↗ carried
$125.00+10.7% YTD+16.0% 3m-15.6% from 52-wk high
16% below high
Setupcup / deep base18% below the $148.11 pivot~33% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 41/100
Quality · WeakValuation · RichWinner DNA · 52/D
EV/S 13.2xRev +41%GM 78%ROIC -11%FCF yield -0.8%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING IHI (iShares Medical Devices proxy) strongly: GKOS +10.7% YTD vs IHI -19.4% YTD; +16.0% 3m vs IHI -11.8%. Only 1m lags (-7.7% vs IHI +0.7%).
Up +2.7% on a brutal tape day = standout relative strength; holds above 50-day ($122.51) and 200-day ($105.99).
Valuation. Hyper-growth, 77%-gross-margin ophthalmic-device story trading at ~13x EV/sales while still deeply GAAP-unprofitable and FCF-negative (R&D 30% of revenue). The premium multiple is justified only if the iDose/iStent ramp converts to operating leverage; net-cash balance sheet funds the burn for now.
Near pivot
$42.80+30.2% YTD+46.2% 3m-6.6% from 52-wk high
7% below high
Setupcontraction3% below the $44.22 pivot~14% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 53/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 47/D
P/E n/m (GAAP loss)EV/S ~5xRev +20%GM 74%Op margin -16%ROIC -5%FCF yield ~0.4%EPS growth -49%
Relative strength. LEADING selective medtech. RS percentile 94 vs proxy IHI (iShares US Medical Devices), which is -23% from its 52w high and below its 200-DMA; AXGN is +46% 3m, sits 48% above its own 200-DMA ($28.90) and just 7% off highs — a clear relative-strength outlier in a weak device tape.
Valuation. Nerve-repair franchise compounding ~20% revenue at 74% gross margin, but still GAAP-unprofitable (-16% op margin, negative ROIC) so the ~5x EV/S rests on a path to scale-driven profitability rather than current earnings — quality-of-growth is good, balance-sheet of earnings is not there yet.
Extended
$25.05+125.1% YTD+90.9% 3m-1.7% from 52-wk high
2% below high
Setupshallow pullbackat the $25.49 pivot (+1.8%)~2% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 0/100
Fundamentals · WeakWinner DNA · 48/D
P/E n/m (GAAP loss)EV/S ~1.3xRev +2%GM 48%Op margin -49%ROIC -10%FCF yield ~0.6%EPS growth +83% (off losses)
Relative strength. LEADING and the strongest of the device cohort. RS percentile 94 vs proxy IHI, which is -23% from its high; AVNS has nearly doubled in 3 months (+91%), is up +125% over 6m and sits at all-time-relative highs (71% above its 200-DMA $14.63) while the ETF makes lower lows.
Valuation. A re-rating/turnaround trade, not a fundamentals trade: revenue is flat (+2%), gross margin is only 48% and GAAP op margin is -49% with negative ROIC — the doubling is portfolio-divestiture/restructuring optionality being priced in, leaving the stock extended and fundamentally unproven at +125% over six months.
Avoid
$13.89+62.2% YTD+9.7% 3m-20.0% from 52-wk high
20% below high
Setupreclaim setupneeds to reclaim the 50-day, then clear $16.14~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 74/B
P/E ~35xEV/EBITDA ~42xEV/S ~9xRev +27% ($52M)GM 75%Op margin 8%ROE 10%ROIC ~5%FCF yield ~9%net cash (net debt/EBITDA -5.3x)
Relative strength. LAGGING near-term despite a high RS rank. RS percentile 90 vs proxy IHI on the 6-month base (+62%), but the -17% last month has dropped BWAY below its 50-DMA ($15.14) and 20% off its high while IHI is roughly flat on the month — the relative leadership has rolled over short-term.
Valuation. Deep-TMS franchise turned GAAP-profitable in FY25 ($7.6M net income, EPS $0.40) on +27% revenue to $52M with 75% gross margin, strong FCF yield and net cash, but the multiples are rich (~35x P/E, ~42x EV/EBITDA, ~9x EV/S) for a $52M-revenue device maker — and the chart has broken its 50-DMA on a -17% month, so the valuation offers no cushion here.
Extended
$4.57+48.4% YTD+18.7% 3m-20.1% from 52-wk high
20% below high
Setupcup / deep base22% below the $5.60 pivot~33% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 51/100
Fundamentals · StretchedWinner DNA · 31/F
No P/E (unprofitable)GM 67%op margin -62%ROIC -8.3%FCF yield -1.6%Rev +19% (accel +37pp)~$1.2B mkt capEPS +9.8%
Relative strength. LEADING its theme proxy IHI (iShares U.S. Medical Devices).
BFLY sits at the 88th RS percentile with +18.7% 3m / +48.4% 6m vs IHI's roughly mid-teens 6m advance — a hand-held POC ultrasound disruptor outrunning the broad device complex by ~30pp over 6m.
Valuation. Software-like 67% gross margin and re-accelerating ~19% revenue growth are the bull case, but deeply negative operating margin (-62%), negative ROIC and negative FCF make this a pre-profit story stock priced on the iQ3 / AI-guidance ramp rather than current earnings.
Near pivot
$16.99+25.2% YTD+77.5% 3m-4.7% from 52-wk high
5% below high
Setupconsolidation5% below the $17.83 pivot~15% risk to base lowtrend ✗accum 48/100
Fundamentals · MixedWinner DNA · 46/D
No meaningful P/E (recovery-from-loss, EPS growth -7224% artifact)GM 49.5%op margin 128% (distorted by one-time items)ROIC -6.7%FCF yield -0.8%Rev +1.5%~$1.3B mkt cap
Relative strength. LEADING its theme proxy IHI (iShares U.S. Medical Devices).
At the 88th RS percentile with a +77.5% 3m / +25.3% 1m surge off a depressed base, IART is sharply outpacing IHI's ~mid-teens 6m return — a deep-value device-recovery breakout.
Valuation. The reported 128% operating margin and -7224% EPS growth are accounting/one-time-item artifacts off a loss base, not run-rate — underlying quality is soft (negative ROIC and FCF, near-flat ~1.5% revenue). The move is a re-rating of a beaten-down turnaround at ~1x sales, so the breakout is real but the fundamentals haven't yet confirmed it.
Neocloud / AI Datacenter Buildout (GPU-rental + servers)
carried forward
What’s driving it. Vera Rubin NVL72 validation (CRWV, 06-01), HPE's record Q2 FY26 beat ($10.68B rev +40% YoY, biggest beat since 2018), and multi-year hyperscaler capacity contracts (NBIS Microsoft $17B + Meta $27B; CRWV $99.4B backlog; IREN Microsoft $9.7B + NVIDIA $3.4B).
Durability. Short-term momentum is real but fragile — three of four names carry Weak/Stretched balance sheets and the group is a laggard catching up to the extended parent (CRWV still ~33% below its $187 high). The contracts are multi-year, but the leverage (CRWV current ratio 0.31, working capital -$12.2B, Q1 FCF -$4.7B) means this is the highest tail-risk expression of the AI buildout; durability is contract-backed but financially precarious.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Weak-to-mixed in aggregate — the lowest-quality theme in the AI complex. CRWV is Weak (current ratio 0.31, WC -$12.2B, Q1 FCF -$4.7B, D/E 3.7x, EV/S ~27x).
NBIS is Stretched (EV/S ~68x, Q1 GAAP 'profit' is ~$743M non-operating other income masking a -$128M operating loss) but has the best balance sheet (current ratio 8.3x, near-net-cash). IREN is Weak (FCF -$0.92B/qtr, beta 4.18, revenue DECLINING sequentially $240M→$185M→$145M as the mining base winds down faster than AI ramps).
HPE is the only FCF-positive name (Mixed: EV/S ~5x, P/E ~16x, ~5.2% FCF yield) but thin AI-server margins.
Current leadersHPE · IREN · NBIS
Extended
$49.20+104.7% YTD+129.2% 3m-23.4% from 52-wk high
23% below high
Setupdeep pullback31% below the $64.25 pivot~24% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 67/C
P/E 1282xEV/EBITDA 44xEV/S 3.3xRev +41%GM 37%ROIC -1%FCF yield 0.9%net debt 7.0x EBITDA
Relative strength. LEADING vs SMH on all horizons: YTD +104.7% vs +58.2%; 3m +129.2% vs +44.1%; 1m +63.8% vs +8.9%
Valuation. Far more reasonable valuation than the pure-plays (EV/S ~5x, P/E ~16x) and genuinely FCF-positive — the only one of the four generating free cash. But the stock doubled in a month (50DMA $28.63, price +64% above it; 200DMA $24.37, +93% above) and printed an all-time high on an earnings gap.
AI-server margins are thin/pass-through; legacy server/networking/Juniper dilute buildout purity. Lowest-risk fundamentally but most chase-extended technically.
Extended
$54.35+43.8% YTD+48.1% 3m-29.3% from 52-wk high
29% below high
Setupdeep pullback30% below the $70.71 pivot~28% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 15/100
Quality · WeakValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 21/F
P/E 269xEV/EBITDA 92xEV/S 52.6xRev -0%GM 65%ROIC 1%FCF yield -4.8%net debt 1.4x EBITDA
Relative strength. LAGGING WGMI (CoinShares Bitcoin Mining / AI-datacenter-miner proxy) on every window: IREN +43.8% YTD vs WGMI +61.3%; +48.1% 3m vs WGMI +71.0%; -10.9% 1m vs WGMI +1.4%. Weakest relative member; -12% on the day and -29% off its high while still above 50-day ($49.21)/200-day ($46.39).
Valuation. Highest-risk of the four: beta 4.18, an unfinished pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud (revenue actually fell sequentially $240M Q1 -> $185M Q2 -> $145M Q3 FY26 as mining cash flows are abandoned), deeply FCF-negative (-$0.92B/qtr), and GPU-asset-backed leverage ($3.65B) that amplifies downside if AI-cloud ramp slips or GPU collateral values fall. Retrofit execution to contracted 480MW AI spec is unproven.
Sizing it as a leader overstates a still-transitioning, leverage-dependent story — the proposed high-beta-expression tag is the honest call.
Extended
$227.81+172.1% YTD+155.0% 3m-18.3% from 52-wk high
18% below high
Setupdeep pullback22% below the $278.84 pivot~22% risk to base lowtrend ✓accum 37/100
Quality · MixedValuation · StretchedWinner DNA · 50/D
P/E 594xEV/S 120.5xRev +622%GM 21%ROIC -5%FCF yield -6.1%net cash
Relative strength. LEADING proxy ETF SMH on every horizon: YTD +172.1% vs SMH +58.2%; 3m +155.0% vs SMH +49.7%; 1m +16.8% vs SMH +3.6%
Valuation. Best balance sheet of the four (current ratio 8.3x, effectively net cash, FCF near breakeven) and explosive revenue growth, but valuation is the richest in the group at EV/Sales ~68x. Q1'26 'profit' ($621M net income / $2.40 EPS) is driven by ~$743M of non-operating other income — core operating income was -$128M, so do not read the GAAP profit as operational.
Move is momentum-loaded (~7.6x off its 52w low in a year); Netherlands/post-Yandex structure adds governance optics. The strongest tape but the most stretched multiple.
Left the leaders board this issue — themes that rotated out of leadership
Fintech / stablecoins / crypto equities
− COINbroken downtrendCOIN is deeply broken: $152.40 (-7.1% on the day) sits 65.7% below its $444.65 high, near its $139.36 52-wk low and far below its 50DMA ($187.73) and 200DMA ($246.18), a genuine RS/trend collapse not a mere non-repick.
− CRCLbroken downtrendCRCL at $80.28 sits 73.1% below its 52-wk high of $298.99 and below both the 50DMA ($104.22) and 200DMA ($102.08), falling another -11.3% today — a confirmed breakdown consistent with the prior broken-avoid read.
− HOODrs fadedHOOD dropped -6.6% to $82.47 on heavy volume (35M shares), now 46.4% below its 52-wk high ($153.86) and back below its 200DMA ($103.55) though still above the 50DMA ($77.67) — the buyable-near-pivot momentum faded sharply.
Software (SaaS / application)
− CRMbroken downtrendCRM at $185.66 is 32.9% below its 52-wk high of $276.80 and trading well under its 200DMA ($220.71), only marginally above the 50DMA ($181.12), confirming the deteriorating downtrend that had it lagging IGV.
− MSFTrs fadedMSFT at $416.67 is 25.0% below its 52-wk high ($555.45) and still under its 200DMA ($457.29) while only marginally above its 50DMA ($406.33), keeping it the laggard of the software theme behind IGV.
Core watchlist — the fundamentally-strong names we track
The persistent core. Leaders scored 0–100 (deterministically, from a point-in-time fundamentals cache) on a CANSLIM + SEPA growth-leader quality fingerprint — durable revenue growth, earnings inflection, margin expansion, high ROIC, and free-cash-flow generation (O’Neil + Minervini + the quality-factor literature), plus a small-cap runway tilt. Winner-grade names (≥60) are carried forward run-to-run and tracked here. The RS leaders that fail the profile still appear on the theme cards as current momentum, but are NOT tracked (momentum is transient). Quality measures “a great, improving business now”; the runway term is the one factor earned by our own survivorship-corrected backtest (among RS leaders, smaller cap was the only strong forward signal — a fat upside tail), gated on cash support so it rewards small cash-generative growers, not cash-burning lottery tickets. A high score on a mega-cap is still a quality read (its runway is capped), not a forward-multibagger one. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Proven compounderswinner-grade · tracked core · mature / large-cap18
Emerging candidateswinner-grade · tracked core · small-enough base to still compound20
Momentum — not trackedRS leaders shown on the cards; fundamentals don't match the winner fingerprint (transient)63
Research notes — thesis-led watchlist
The canonical actionable shortlist is the Tier‑1 board above. These are thesis-led research notes — the names worth understanding regardless of entry timing. Each shows its current board status so the two never disagree.
+21.0% YTD, -9.1% off high. 30x P/E, 19% op margin, $4.5B FCF (~3.6% yield), 1.8x net leverage, Rev +10.3% to $27.4B. Thesis falsifies on a clean break and hold below the 200d ($366).
Entry. Constructive-basing. At $395.94, above its 200d ($366) and right at its 50d ($397) after a controlled -6.0% on the month.
Near a pivot entry on a 50d hold; you are not chasing a vertical move.
Thesis. The lowest-beta, highest-quality way to own the #1 measured RS leader (Industrials) and the AI-power buildout at the same time. It rises less and falls less than VRT/NVT, so it is the cleanest hold through a momentum-unwind regime.
Risk. A genuine hyperscaler-capex deceleration is the core risk. Lower DC torque than pure plays means it underperforms if the AI-capex theme re-accelerates hard.
+29.9% YTD (lags SMH +52.6% on momentum but leads on structure). ~28x P/E, 45% net margin, 25% ROIC, 32% ROE, net cash. Falsifies on a close below the 50d ($386) that does not quickly reclaim.
Entry. near its pivot. At $415.17, only -7.8% off its high and holding well above its 50d ($385.65, +8%) and 200d ($324.37, +28%) through the flush — the strongest structure in the group.
Thesis. The cleanest entry to re-engage the strongest medium-term trend on the board without buying the extended momentum leader. It is the toll-taker on the entire semi roster's volume, the fundamentally soundest name in the group, and has the best chart structure.
Risk. Taiwan-concentration geopolitical tail is non-diversifiable. A real AI-capex slowdown surfaces here first via CoWoS bookings.
US-listed ADR carries TWD/USD FX and an ADR-vs-local valuation gap.
+31.2% YTD (vs XLE +29.0%). 11.4x P/E, 5.5x EV/EBITDA (cheapest large E&P), 58% ROIC, ~6.9% FCF yield, 0.44x net leverage. Falsifies if it loses leadership vs XLE and breaks the basing structure.
Entry. Constructive-basing. At $137.78, -9.3% off its high after a +2.3% month — the only energy name with positive 1m AND 3m.
Note the whole sector is below its 50-EMA on the flush, so this is a value-leader entry into a cooling theme, not a fresh breakout.
Thesis. The single oil-theme leader that survives the live tape — the ONLY candidate actually beating XLE on relative strength — and the best fundamentals in the group. Verification corrected the original roster: XOM is the proxy by weight not strength, WMB was mistagged as a leader and is actually the weakest, levered name.
Risk. Energy momentum is cooling (XLE 1m negative, below 50d), so the theme itself is extended-late. A supply-premium unwind (Hormuz de-escalation, crude back below $90) takes the whole group down regardless of EOG's quality.
+14.4% YTD (vs XLV roughly flat). 14.4x P/E, 18% ROIC, 28% net margin, 72% GM, lowest leverage (1.2x), ~4.7% FCF yield. Falsifies if it breaks consolidation and rolls back below the sector as XLV fails its 200d reclaim.
Entry. near its pivot. At $120.79, only ~3.5% below its high, consolidating (last 3 months +5%) rather than going vertical.
The least-extended name in a cohort where everything else is extended-chasing.
Thesis. The only constructive entry in the freshest emerging rotation, and the only Strong-fundamental name in the healthcare turn. While the managed-care vanguard (UNH/ELV) is pinned at 52-week highs and extended, Merck is the quality name still offering a near-pivot entry into a sector just reclaiming its 200d.
Risk. The 2028 Keytruda patent cliff is the structural overhang the cheap multiple already reflects — this is a financial-quality name with a known revenue-cliff problem, not a clean compounder.
+52.4% YTD, +53.6% 3m. 23x P/E (cheapest in group), 38% GM, 16% op margin, 19% ROE, 1.8x net leverage. Small cap (~$26B) so it overshoots both ways. Falsifies on a break and hold below the 200d ($116).
Entry. near its pivot. At $162.86, only -8.5% off its high (the tightest in the group) and +41% above its 200d ($116), after a controlled -5.6% on the month.
Thesis. The cheapest name in the AI-capex buildout group holding closest to its high — a higher-torque complement to ETN for investors who want more pure data-center exposure. Verification confirmed it as a genuine leader (vs GEV which was mistagged and is actually rolling over).
Risk. High-beta AI-capex pure play — it fell ~2x the S&P on the flush and is the most exposed of the group to any hyperscaler-capex-deceleration scare. Smallest cap means the sharpest drawdowns.
Emerging / early-rotation watch
- Healthcare SECTOR broadening (not the leaders). The genuinely early signal is XLV reclaiming its 200d (153.01, green +0.61% on a -2.6% day), ~5% below its high with room to run.The vanguard (UNH/ELV at fresh highs) is already extended; watch for the SECOND-tier large-cap pharma to follow MRK. Trigger: XLV holds its 200d for 2+ weeks AND breadth widens beyond the managed-care names.
- KRE (regional banks) as the only real Financials pocket. The broad sector is a YTD laggard, but KRE is +6.5% above its 200d and only -5.3% off its higha genuine rate-beneficiary. Trigger: if the higher-for-longer rate regime persists (10Y holds >4.5%, Fed-hike odds stay elevated), KRE confirms a rotation the broad XLF does not.Watch KRE relative strength vs XLF.
- AI-semi flush-and-resume confirmation. The unresolved question is whether June 5 was a pullback-in-trend or leadership-loss.SMH is still +44.7% above its 200d. Trigger to re-engage the broad theme: SMH reclaims its 50d and the inverse-ETF crowding (SOXS) unwinds, signaling the leveraged-long flush has cleared.AMD reclaiming its highs vs a basing NVDA would confirm momentum is back.
- Consumer Staples follow-through vs one-day flow. XLP +1.7% was the best single-day RS but it is -7.4% off its highcurrently safe-haven flow, not a breakout. Trigger to upgrade from defensive hedge to leadership: XLP makes a measured multi-month RS breakout (new relative high vs SPY) rather than just bidding on down days.Until then it fades if semis resume.
- Copper METAL vs the miners. The structural deficit thesis is durable (TC/RC at $0/tonne, Grasberg at 50%) but the equities just took an indiscriminate -10.6% flush. Trigger: COPX holds its 200d (72.22) and TECK/FCX hold above their 50d as the rate-flush clearsthat separates the durable commodity trend from the high-beta equity noise and confirms the dip was repricing, not a fundamentals break.
Avoid / fading
- Gold and precious-metals miners (GDX, GDXJ, NEM, AEM, WPM). The clearest broken complex. Gold sold off WITH stocks (GLD -3.65%, below both MAs, -22% off high)a rate tell, not safe-haven. Miners de-rated 2-3x the metal (GDX -8.75%, WPM -9.5%) and inverse-miner ETFs led the entire gainers list (GDXD +27%, JDST +20%).Avoid until the metal stops falling and reclaims its 50d.
- AI power / uranium / nuclear equities (URA, URNM, NLR, SMR). The trade most likely to be mistaken for emerging when it is fading.Trust the price over the narrative: URA is below both its 50d and 200d (-27% off high), NLR broke below both MAs, SMR is -12.5% at half its 200d with a fraud-lawsuit overhang and Goldman/Citi downgrades, and the IPP leaders (VST, CEG) are both below their 200d. The long-run demand thesis is real; the equities are priced years ahead and below trend.
- Broad Financials as 'emerging leadership' (XLF). The narrative correction. XLF is -4.5% YTD and below its 200da YTD laggard, not a leader. The green day was a one-session safe harbor, not measured RS.The 'higher-rates-help-NIM' thesis is forward hope, not realized strength. Only KRE is a real pocket; do not own the broad sector on the leadership thesis.
- WMB (Williams) inside the energy-leader basket. Mistagged as a leader; it is the weakest name on every return window (+19.7% YTD, negative 1m and 3m), a different sub-theme (gas midstream, not oil-levered), and stretched (28x P/E, 13.9x EV/EBITDA, ~1.4% FCF yield, 3.95x net leverage, 93% payout).The 'toll-taker decoupling' thesis is not visible in the tape.
- GEV inside the data-center buildout basket. Mistagged as a lower-beta leader; it is the worst 1-month performer of the group (-16.6%) and the ONLY name below its 50d.It is a blended conglomerate (GM ~20%, EBIT ~7%) where data-center is a minority of a $38B base, and its FY25 ROE is flattered by a one-off ~$2.05B tax benefit (true ROIC ~6.3%). Extended-chasing, not leadership.
- ERO (Ero Copper) inside the copper basket. Mistagged as a high-beta leader; it is the broken name. Down -8.7% YTD while COPX is +11.3%, lags the proxy on 1m/3m/YTD, broke -16.2% on June 6, and is sitting ON its 200d. Single-mine (Tucuma), single-country (Brazil), thin liquidity. One more down day confirms the trend breakbroken-avoid.
- AMD as a fresh entry (own only with eyes open). It is the live RS leader but the most extended and dangerous: +134% in 3 months, gapped -10.9% on the session, ~176x trailing P/E on a 10.7% operating margin and 5.4% ROIC. The bull case (MI450 ships 2H26) is committed-but-unrealized revenue. This is a momentum leader, not a fundamentally proven oneextended-chasing risk.
Caveats
- Data as of 2026-06-05 (semis, buildout, healthcare verified intraday) and 2026-06-06 (energy, copper verified next session, after the additional gap-down). All prices, returns, margins, and balance-sheet figures are live FMP datapoints, not from memory. One trading session does not resolve flush-and-resume vs leadership-loss in AI-semis.
- This is a DESCRIPTIVE relative-strength readout of what the tape is doing right now, NOT a forecast and NOT personalized investment advice. Status tags (leading/extended/fading) and fundamentalHealth grades describe current measured conditions; they do not predict forward returns. Do your own due diligence and size to your own risk tolerance.
- Rotation-reversal risk is the dominant hazard. The entire readout rests on a single rate-driven, leveraged-long flush. If the rate repricing reverses (Fed-hike odds fall, 10Y back below 4.5%), the defensive bid (staples, healthcare, the safe-harbor financials green) fades fast and the crowded AI-semi/buildout complex resumes. Every 'extended-late' and 'emerging-early' tag is conditional on the rate regime persisting.
- Correlation hazard: the AI-capex complex is one trade wearing many tickers. Semis, the cooling/electrical buildout names, AI-power/IPPs, and AI-adjacent cyber/copper all sold off together and would re-accelerate together. They are not independent diversifying positions — a single hyperscaler-capex-deceleration scare (the Broadcom 'ceiling' read) hits all of them at once. Sizing across them is concentrated, not diversified.
- Verification corrected several theses that the narrative got wrong. Financials are not emerging leadership (XLF -4.5% YTD, below 200d). In energy, only EOG actually leads (XOM/COP/WMB lag the proxy; WMB is the weakest). In semis, three of four 'dominant leaders' (NVDA, AVGO, TSM) LAG the SMH proxy — only AMD leads, and it is the fundamentally weakest. In the buildout, GEV is rolling over, not a lower-beta leader. In copper, ERO is broken, not a high-beta leader. The CVS '~88% YTD' figure was wrong (a TTM number; real 2026 YTD is ~+20%). Trust these corrections over the original framing.
- RS-vs-quality inversion in semis: the relative-strength ranking is almost the inverse of fundamental quality. TSM and NVDA (45-56% net margins, 25-63% ROIC, net cash) are the RS laggards, while AMD (10.7% op margin, ~176x P/E) is the RS leader. fundamentalHealth grades are descriptive and do NOT override the RS-based entry context — they are a flag for the reader to weigh chase-risk, not a buy/sell signal.
- Remaining uncertainty I am NOT smoothing over: (1) whether the energy supply premium holds is unknowable from the tape — XLE momentum is already cooling. (2) The copper structural-deficit thesis is sound but the equities are high-beta and just took an indiscriminate flush; the metal vs miner divergence is unresolved. (3) The healthcare sector reclaim is genuinely early and could fail its 200d retest. (4) Backtested/structural relative-strength conditions are diagnostic of the present; forward behavior is the only forward validator. Treat all of this as a snapshot, not a roadmap.
What’s driving it. The AI-datacenter and power buildout capex cycle. This is the picks-and-shovels of electrification and grid, not the crowded semi momentum that just unwound.
XLI is +12.3% YTD and above both its 50d (+2.1%) and 200d (+7.7%).
Durability. Sustainable. The driver is a multi-year physical capex cycle (power, grid, machinery), not a positioning trade.
The tell is trend integrity: industrials held up far better than the index on the flush and stayed well above both moving averages. The risk is that the high-beta AI-power names inside it (GEV-type) trade as semi derivatives on down days, but the broad theme is intact.
Leaders’ fundamental health. Strong in aggregate. These are profitable, cash-generative compounders with real backlogs.
Eaton (the verified cooling/electrical proxy here) runs 19% operating margin, $4.5B FCF (~3.6% yield), and 1.8x net leverage at a 30x P/E. The group trades at premium multiples that already price sustained capex, so valuation, not balance sheet, is the watch item.